Crude oil’s geopolitical risk premium has vanished from the market as fast as it appeared, as the initial fear of a wider Middle East conflict faded.
With Israel and Iran stepping back from direct conflict, volatility has dropped back to multiyear lows and the skew has flipped back to favoring puts, as focus returns to the usual suspects: interest rates, OPEC+ supply and global demand growth.
“On geopolitics, the probability implied from the options market of Brent above $100 by year end has reset back to 9% from reaching as high as 17%,” said Tanvir Sandhu-bsp-person>, Bloomberg Intelligence’s …