Senator Chris Murphy, responding to a social media post that alleged a single US$1.5 billion purchase of S&P 500 futures just before Trump’s announcement, called it an example of “mind blowing corruption.”
“A US$1.5 BILLION BET … 5 minutes before Trump’s post. Who was it? Trump? A family member? A White House staffer? This is corruption. Mind blowing corruption,” the Democratic lawmaker said on X.
The speculation about insider trading has also spread to prediction markets, which allow people to bet on the likelihood of thousands of global events.
CNN reported that one trader made US$1 million from dozens of well-timed bets on Polymarket that correctly predicted US and Israeli military actions against Iran.
Based on findings from Bubblemaps, an analytics company that tracks blockchain transactions, this particular bettor has had a pattern of prescient bets, including hours before Israeli’s Oct 2024 strikes on Iran, CNN reported.
Innes noted that the oil market is “not just traders speculating on price; it’s a tightly connected ecosystem of physical players, refiners, shippers and governments, all operating within overlapping information channels.”
He added that the activity could have been driven by a large producer hedging against a potential price drop, given that oil futures had surged 40 per cent since the start of the war.
A few hours after Trump’s announcement, Tehran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, reportedly involved in talks, said “no negotiations” were underway, insisting Trump was seeking “to manipulate the financial and oil markets.”
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