China’s trade has displayed remarkable resilience this year. Its goods trade expanded 4 per cent year on year for the nine months so far in yuan terms, according to customs data. Quarterly growth accelerated from 1.3 per cent at the start of the year, to 4.5 per cent by midyear and finally to 6 per cent. This steady momentum reflects both the robustness of demand and continued refinement of China’s trade structure.
But the regional performance has been uneven. Exports to the United States fell 27 per cent year on year in September under the weight of tariffs, continuing August’s decline. The European market, however, provided a counterbalance. Chinese exports to the European Union rose 14.2 per cent in September, likely supported by an improvement in the euro area manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI), an indicator of economic recovery.
Emerging markets offered further impetus. Exports to Africa, for instance, surged 56.4 per cent in September, while shipments to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) region remained buoyant, rising 15.6 per cent. These figures underscore the growing importance of diversification in China’s foreign trade strategy.
Within this shifting landscape, Hong Kong’s role has been particularly striking. The goods trade between the mainland and Hong Kong was officially valued at US$261.56 billion for January-September.
Mainland imports from Hong Kong alone for the nine months soared by 86.6 per cent year on year in dollar terms, far surpassing the 35.8 per cent increase for all of 2024. Mainland exports to Hong Kong for the period also rose, by 12.6 per cent, outpacing last year’s performance. This robust expansion highlights Hong Kong’s enduring strategic significance amid an increasingly complex and risk-laden global trading environment.
Confidence among Hong Kong exporters has strengthened accordingly. The Hong Kong Trade Development Council revealed in September that its export confidence index for the third quarter had climbed decisively above the 50-point threshold for both current and expected readings, reaching a record high since the index’s revision. Notably, 64 per cent of those surveyed expected profit margins to either stabilise or improve, with optimism concentrated on the mainland and Asean markets.
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