On a recent episode of the Lex Fridman podcast, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi extensively discussed relations with China, emphasising that stable and cooperative ties can only be established through dialogue. This ice-breaking statement garnered praise from a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, likely signalling a new phase in bilateral engagement between the two Asian giants.
Why has the China-India relationship suddenly shifted? What lies ahead? The key reason for this development is New Delhi’s realisation that maintaining a cold war with Beijing is increasingly costly. More importantly, given that last October, the two sides held their first formal bilateral dialogue since the 2020 Galwan incident, economic cooperation could soon take diplomatic precedence over the border dispute.
It is clear that US-Indian dynamics play a significant role in shaping Sino-Indian ties. The advent of Trump 2.0 marks a period of deep readjustment in US-India relations, which inevitably influences India’s approach to China.
While India and the United States are often described as “natural partners”, Modi’s February visit to Washington revealed that US-Indian cooperation is driven by more complex realpolitik considerations. The contrasts between former US president Joe Biden’s emphasis on multilateralism and Trump’s “America first” approach are too significant for India to ignore.
The Biden administration viewed India as a key ally in “friendshoring”, offering strategic support without expecting immediate reciprocity. In contrast, Donald Trump’s administration pursues a more transactional approach. Thus, India is now motivated to prepare for the worst-case scenario, mitigating Trump-related risks by seeking reconciliation with China.
Recent interactions show that while India may gain face, the US expects tangible substance. Modi’s US visit led to a new high-profile initiative for military, technology and industrial collaboration. While that might look prestigious to Modi’s government and the Indian public, there is a notable lack of defined implementation timelines. For the US, such an arrangement incurs minimal upfront costs and little concern that India will quickly achieve a China-style economic catch-up.
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