• The WFP and FAO report indicates that 77.5 billion dollars will be reimbursed in the next three years
• Political instability, lack of agreement with the IMF to affect the ability to import food
ISLAMABAD: Acute food insecurity in Pakistan is likely to worsen further in the coming months if the economic and political crisis worsens further, exacerbating the effects of the 2022 floods, warns a new United Nations report published on Monday.
He report entitled, Hunger Hotspots: Early Warnings from FAO and WFP on Acute Food Insecurity, published jointly by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Program (WFP), covers the period from June to November 2023.
He points out that amid the current global economic slowdown, rising public debt has exacerbated the current financial crisis in Pakistan. It notes that the authorities will have to pay off $77.5 billion of external debt between April 2023 and June 2026, a substantial amount considering the country’s GDP of $350 billion in 2021.
Growing political instability and delayed reforms are preventing the release of a crucial new credit line from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and additional support from bilateral partners, the report says.
The political crisis and civil unrest are likely to worsen ahead of general elections scheduled for October 2023, amid growing insecurity in the north-west of the country. Shortage of foreign reserves and currency depreciation are diminishing the country’s ability to import essential food and energy supplies and increasing food prices, as well as causing nationwide power outages, the report says.
The situation has been aggravated by the effects of last year’s floods which caused damage and economic loss of Rs 30,000 crore in the agricultural sector.
According to the report, more than 8.5 million people are likely to experience high levels of acute food insecurity between September and December 2022.
The food insecurity and malnutrition situation is likely to worsen in the outlook period, as economic and political crises are reducing the purchasing power and ability of households to buy food and other essential goods, it notes.
The likely deterioration of the food security situation in the projection period is due to the devastating impact of the floods, which caused livestock losses and negatively affected food production and the availability of food and livelihood opportunities.
It also notes that Afghanistan’s coal and food export earnings could fall if the economic and political crisis in Pakistan, Kabul’s main trading partner, and the security situation in border areas continue to deteriorate.
The report has called for building the capacity of national and provincial disaster management authorities to include forecast-based financing and risk insurance as part of disaster management and sectoral contingency plans.
Among the actions recommended by the report are strengthening the emergency response nature of existing social protection mechanisms (such as the Benazir Income Support Programme) to ensure effective anticipatory action and humanitarian response through social protection systems.
The two UN agencies further warn that acute food insecurity is likely to further deteriorate in 81 hunger hotspots, comprising a total of 22 countries during the June-November 2023 outlook period.
Afghanistan, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan and Yemen remain at the highest level of concern. Haiti, the Sahel (Burkina Faso and Mali) and Sudan have been raised to the highest levels of concern. This is due to the severe restrictions on the movement of people and goods in Haiti, as well as in Burkina Faso and Mali, and the recent outbreak of the conflict in Sudan.
All hotspots at the highest tier have populations facing or projected to face hunger or are at risk of deteriorating toward catastrophic conditions, as they are already critically food insecure and face severe exacerbating factors. These countries require the most urgent attention.
Pakistan, the Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Kenya, Congo and Syria are sources of great concern, and the warning also extends to Myanmar.
Published in Alba, May 30, 2023
