Playing the future of Russia

All eyes are on Moscow, but no one knows what they are looking at.

Are there more uprisings in the works? Will Vladimir Putin step up his brutality in the Ukraine to compensate? Are the nukes safe from him? Will it all somehow return to a tense wartime status quo?

These kinds of questions have taken over conversations after a failed mutiny saw mercenaries from the Wagner Group march within hours of Moscow before returning.

As Putin and Wagner’s boss Yevgeny Prigozhin continue to weave competing narratives about the rebellion, one thing seems certain: The Russian leader’s veneer of invincibility has been shattered.

That does not mean that the end of the Putin regime is imminent. But a host of hard-to-imagine and even bizarre scenarios are now unfolding as everyone speculates what’s to come next.

There are “more unknowns than known,” said a senior Central European diplomat, who, like others, has been granted anonymity to discuss sensitive security issues.

POLITICO exposes some of that knowledge, and unknowns, about what will now unfold in the world’s largest country.

Putin’s Next Act: Repression? More war? Expelled?

Footage of Wagner’s troops capturing a major military barracks before marching on Moscow with little consequence, only to turn back without even facing arrest, has prompted muddled reflections on what the strongman leader’s potential next move will be.

Often, it is a repression.

“What I think follows naturally from this now is even more crackdown in Russia,” said Laurie Bristow, who served as Britain’s ambassador to Russia from 2016 to 2020.

However, that has not happened yet. Indeed, despite ridiculing the riot leaders for betraying Russia, Putin claims to be offering those involved a way out.

On Monday, the saying Wagner’s soldiers would be free to join the regular forces, go home or head to Belarus, raising speculation that the Moscow regime’s once-dominant position of power is withering.

An Eastern European diplomat said his assessment is that Prigozhin was “used by a particular Kremlin/FSB elite group dissatisfied with the current leadership” at the defense ministry. And, the diplomat added, Putin could still change the terms of his deal with Wagner’s boss at any time.

That just created more speculation about what the next few months will entail.

Edgars Rinkēvičs, Latvia’s foreign minister and president-elect, listed a number of options, from “Putin trying to put more repression at home” to the Russian leader “trying to maybe launch some offensive in Ukraine, trying to show his own public that he has total control”.

And while most experts believe Putin will stay in power, for now it is recognized that the West must consider a scenario in which he is replaced. Powerful figures within Putin’s orbit and the FSB intelligence service are likely already watching the unfolding events, and Putin’s confused response, for any opportunity.

“Chaos always carries risks, but there will come a time when Putin’s position will erode and he will be replaced,” said a Western European diplomat.

Speaking with a group of European leaders on Tuesday night, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte insisted that NATO allies do not want instability.

“I refute what Putin suggested yesterday, that we in the West want Russia to fall into internal chaos,” Rutte said. “On the contrary, instability in Russia creates instability in Europe. So we are concerned. These developments are further proof that Putin’s war has achieved nothing but more instability; Above all, it has inflicted intolerable suffering on the Ukrainian people.”

John Lough, a Russia specialist at Chatham House, said he believed Putin was unlikely to remain in power a year from now.

How that process unfolds, through a coup or a planned succession, would, of course, influence who comes next.

Emily Ferris, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a leading London-based foreign policy and security think tank, argued that the next Russian leader will likely be “a placeholder who is very similar to him, someone who he has the ear of the security services, he has some kind of security experience, he is able to rein in the oligarchs.”

“The person that comes after that,” he added, “would be where the change comes from.”

Wagner’s next boss: Putin? Prigozhin? Belarus?

Surprisingly, Wagner’s mutinous group is still not dead. However, it is not clear who he is working for.

On Tuesday, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko confirmed that Prigozhin had arrived in his country, where Chief Wagner said he would be allowed to continue operating his paramilitary company.

The promise puzzled many: why would Putin allow a rebel force to operate alongside in the guise of a charismatic and treacherous leader? What does Belarus get out of this deal?

Officials in the region are anxiously watching the situation as they try to resolve it.

Minsk has long been a close ally of Moscow and has even allowed Russia to launch attacks on Ukraine from within its borders. Earlier this month, Putin also saying had stationed a first batch of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.

Now some of Wagner’s fighters are apparently heading that way.

“We have to monitor very closely all the movements of the Wagner Group,” Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur warned Tuesday when asked whether the arrival of Wagner personnel in Belarus poses a regional risk.

“There seems to be a lot more to find out about the Prigozhin and Lukashenka deal,” he said in a text message.

Asked about Wagner’s presence in Belarus, former US Army Europe commanding general Ben Hodges said Tuesday that this “does not pose any further risk to Ukraine… but potentially strengthens Lukashenko’s hand.” in the face of their opposition and/or a future push from Russia”.

“I imagine,” added Hodges, “he will also see this connection with Wagner as a business opportunity for him in Africa.”

Speaking in The Hague on Tuesday, Polish President Andrzej Duda said that Wagner’s presence in Belarus is “really serious and very worrying” and that, in his view, the move requires a “very tough NATO response.”

Wagner’s forces are already in several African countries, including Mali and the Central African Republic, helping prop up anti-Western governments in exchange for access to natural resources. And Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has swore They will continue to work there. But not everyone is convinced that the job will always go to Moscow.

“Could Lukashenko now be smarter than Putin?” exclaimed a second diplomat from Eastern Europe. “That would be the last blow for Moscow!”

Moscow’s Next Chapter in Ukraine: Deflated Troops? Less mercenaries? Dueling paramilitaries?

Officials are working out how Wagner’s failed mutiny will affect the battlefield in Ukraine, both in terms of how many Wagner members return to fight in Ukraine and how his mutiny affects the thinking of the regular Russian army.

“One of the things we should be watching very closely in the coming days is whether morale takes a nosedive in the Russian military,” said Bristow, the former British ambassador.

But, he added, “we must be very careful not to think that this means that Ukraine does not yet face a long and hard fight.”

A senior central European defense official stressed that if Wagner’s troops are no longer involved in Ukraine, the dynamics could change.

“The Wagner Group was for many months the most effective fighting force on the Russian side in Ukraine,” the official said. “If the group is disbanded and will no longer deploy to Ukraine, it will reduce Russia’s military offensive capability.”

And it’s not all Wagner: The weekend riot could also impact the reckoning of oligarchs, companies and commanders inside Russia who control their own armed groups.

Rinkēvičs, Latvia’s foreign minister and president-elect, stressed that there are multiple private military entities in Russia, and more could emerge amid Putin’s weakening position.

“It is not only about the regular army in Russia, not about the FSB,” Rinkēvičs said in a telephone interview, “but also about how this situation can develop if more and more oligarchs, private companies or people in power are going to form their own private organizations. , mercenary forces, everyone should take this seriously.”

The next owner of nuclear weapons: The Russian state? A mutinous future?

Russia’s vast nuclear arsenal is one element that sets it apart from most other countries in political turmoil. Officials are more than happy to see Putin weakened, but they also want to see nuclear weapons in stable hands.

Indeed, even at this icy stage in the relationship with Moscow, Washington seemed to be consulting the Kremlin over the weekend about its nuclear weapons. Speaking on Monday, Lavrov said the US ambassador to Moscow had conveyed a message “that the United States hopes all is well with nuclear weapons.”

But experts and officials say they are confident that nuclear weapons will not fall into the wrong hands.

“It is very difficult to imagine a situation where the Russian state loses control of its nuclear arsenal,” said Bristow, a former British ambassador.

Others agree, but say Russia’s nuclear arsenal could still play a role in a future power struggle.

“We have a pretty good view of what they do for security,” said William Alberque, a former director of NATO’s arms control center who now works at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and has visited Russian nuclear sites in the past.

“I am very confident that their nuclear weapons remain safe and under the command of the 12th GUMO,” he said, referring to an address from the Russian Defense Ministry that manages Russia’s nuclear arsenal.

But GUMO 12 himself, Alberque said, could become a kingmaker in a future Russian game of thrones. If Putin loses power, his successors can court the leadership of the powerful leadership, and whoever wins his support would be in first position to win the succession fight.

“If there were chaos in Moscow,” Alberque said, “if there were one or more suitors, I think the smartest one would say: ‘I just spoke with the commander of the 12th GUMO.’”

Paul McLeary and Tim Ross contributed reporting.