IEEFA has submitted its report to the Climate Change Authority’s consultation on economic modeling of potential emissions reduction pathways in Australia. The authors draw on extensive experience in climate, energy and economic modeling and the proposed models.
The scope of the ACC’s analysis may need to be expanded to adequately answer the proposed questions, in particular to consider the impacts on Australia of different emissions pathways towards net zero emissions. The proposed scope should also include the impacts of decarbonization on our key energy markets and consider how to address the globally significant emissions embodied in our exports of key energy products.
Updates to the technical structure of the CEC’s proposed models may be necessary as they are currently based on simplifications and unrealistic assumptions regarding gas supply, CCS and direct air capture.
IEEFA has also suggested several considerations for the proposed scenarios, including ensuring that they explore the implications of a well below 2°C scenario, that they consider the demand-side implications if no new fossil fuels are developed, and that they are not excessive. . It depends on the sequestration of land.
As Australia’s energy sector is responsible for significant water consumption, IEEFA has suggested that changes in water consumption between different energy production and generation options should be included in the modeling exercise when examining different emissions trajectories. This may require the collection of additional data on accurate water intake at the national level.