The Champions League anthem has light into the background for the reason that group stage was wrapped up in December, nevertheless it’s time to crank up the quantity once more.
Europe’s prime membership competitors has returned.
Sixteen groups stay and the knockout stage is the place the enjoyable actually begins. However what are the important thing match-ups? Who’re the darkish horses? The place will every tie be gained and misplaced?
Enable The Athletic to offer the definitive breakdown for you.
Let’s begin by outlining precisely who continues to be within the competitors — and, extra importantly, who’s finest positioned to go on and win it.
To do that, we are able to use Opta’s Energy Rankings — a world rating system containing greater than 13,000 golf equipment rated between zero (lowest) and 100 (highest) — to take a look at the power of every staff and examine their possibilities of development to the quarter-finals.
Unsurprisingly, holders Manchester Metropolis are the strongest membership on the planet, having solidified their standing this season because the champions of the Membership World Cup.
There’s little extra that you could say about Pep Guardiola’s facet as they proceed to trample on anybody who dares to cease them on the home and European levels. Solely Actual Madrid — the second-highest-ranked staff remaining — might match Metropolis’s document of gaining most factors from the group stage. Metropolis’s 18 targets in six video games made their assault essentially the most potent of any facet within the first part of the competitors, and so they certified for the knockout rounds with two video games to spare.
With that in thoughts, you must really feel for Metropolis’s opponents, Copenhagen, who’re the lowest-ranked facet left within the competitors. A match-up between the staff with the very best factors complete and the one with the bottom is essentially the most lopsided affair of the spherical.
Metropolis might take specific satisfaction in learning the Danish membership’s win over Manchester United, for the sake of schadenfreude if not tactical classes. However Copenhagen do boast one in every of Europe’s brightest younger stars, Roony Bardghji, who might use the two-leg tie to broadcast his technical prowess to the continent’s greatest golf equipment.
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That stated, a swift exit would permit Copenhagen to return larger focus to the Superliga, the place they sit third in an in depth title race behind Midtjylland and Brondby.
In contrast, PSV Eindhoven’s conflict with Borussia Dortmund represents the smallest distinction in staff power between two sides within the spherical of 16, in line with Opta’s Energy Rankings.
PSV have been steamrolling the Eredivisie beneath Peter Bosz, successful 19 and drawing two of their 21 league video games to steer second-placed Feyenoord by 10 factors. Bosz is uncompromising — his direct, high-energy fashion has made PSV essentially the most potent facet in Europe’s prime seven leagues and no staff has created greater than their 3.0 anticipated targets (xG) per 90 this season.
That approach of enjoying is proven in The Athletic’s enjoying fashion wheels, which examine both sides’s defensive, possession, development and attacking metrics throughout the highest seven European leagues in line with UEFA coefficients.
As you possibly can see from PSV’s low ‘affected person assault’ (six out of 99), Bosz’s facet don’t take a excessive quantity of attacking-third touches per shot, nor do they blindly shift the ball from side-to-side in possession (‘flow into’, 43 out of 99). As an alternative, they concentrate on directness in attacking areas, coupled with a suffocating press (‘depth’, 90 out of 99) that enables them to camp out of their opponents’ third (‘area tilt’, 95 out of 99).
One factor Bosz might want to remind his gamers of is the step up in high quality on the European stage. PSV’s 4-0 loss to Arsenal noticed them go toe-to-toe with Mikel Arteta’s facet however they have been repeatedly exploited on the counter-attack.
“Me and my coaches studied them. What’s it that they do in another way to us? The reply is that they’re excellent within the opposition field but in addition their very own,” Bosz informed The Athletic in a latest interview. “They get plenty of gamers behind the ball as quickly as attainable. They do it with 10 or 11 however we solely do it with six or seven after which the distances are larger. It’s the transition.”
Dortmund, Bosz’s former membership, know a factor or two about transitional soccer. Whereas they haven’t been at their free-flowing finest beneath Edin Terzic this season, the return of Jadon Sancho has given them a much-needed injection of creativity and directness. Dortmund have gained 4 of their 5 Bundesliga video games in 2024 after a run of six video games and not using a win in all competitions earlier than their winter break.
Dortmund should be given credit score for topping a Champions League group containing Paris Saint-Germain, AC Milan and Newcastle United, managing three clear sheets from six video games. Nonetheless, their defensive permeability has been clear this season, with 1.5 xG conceded per sport solely adequate for the Tenth-best defensive document within the Bundesliga.
Given PSV’s relentlessness in assault, Dortmund’s defence might need work to do. Both approach, anticipate a slugging contest between these evenly-matched sides.
From the closest tie to the very best high quality, in line with Opta, as final season’s overwhelmed finalists Inter Milan face Atletico Madrid.
Inter are in even higher form this time round. A 1-0 win over Juventus final weekend opened up a four-point lead on the prime of Serie A, earlier than a equally momentous victory towards a resurgent Roma protected it, extending their unbeaten run to 17 within the league.
Beneath Simone Inzaghi, Inter have change into a prolific cup staff, successful the 2021-22 and 2022-23 editions of the Coppa Italia, in addition to the 2021 and 2023 Supercoppas. A mix of wonderful type and knockout know-how, together with a rock-solid 5-3-2 form, makes them a really robust facet to beat, mirrored of their ‘likelihood prevention’ rating of 98 out of 99 of their enjoying fashion wheel.
On the ball, Inter can combine it up extra successfully than most. In Serie A this season, not solely have they averaged the joint-most passes per sequence — indicating tidy, thought of build-up play — however they’ve additionally launched essentially the most direct assaults.
Inside their transitional system, capable of cost up the sector with rip-roaring wing-backs and channel-running forwards, their dynamic midfield duo of Nicolo Barella and Hakan Calhanoglu deliver stability. The previous combines creativity with damaging defensive play, whereas the latter has blossomed right into a tempo-setting, pinpoint passer from deep, permitting them to maintain the strain in additional territorially dominant video games.
One participant they should regulate, nevertheless, is Antoine Griezmann — arguably La Liga’s most constant performer this season. No participant has been concerned in additional sequences resulting in targets in Spain, racking up 14 aim contributions from an elusive, barely deeper position.
Griezmann’s contact map this season illustrates the issue that Inter might have on the subject of monitoring his motion, notably if he can proceed to hyperlink with Rodrigo De Paul and Koke to assist overload their opponent’s three-man midfield.
Griezmann’s invention from deep had allowed Alvaro Morata to concentrate on what he does finest, taking round 11 per cent of his touches contained in the field this season and firing 22 headers on aim. The 31-year-old solely wants another aim to equal his document tally for a season however is prone to miss no less than the primary leg towards Inter with a knee harm.
This may soar out as a cagey, cancel-each-other-out form of tie, however either side are producing diversified attacking soccer whereas displaying their traditional defensive grit.
Count on huge atmospheres, ebb and stream, and a captivating tussle for management.
Another factor about Atletico — they’re the one staff to have overwhelmed Actual Madrid, their cross-town rivals, in any competitors this season.
Now 5 factors clear in La Liga after beating closest challengers Girona on Saturday, having sailed by their Champions League group, Actual Madrid’s transition to life after Karim Benzema couldn’t be going a lot smoother.
A box-crashing Jude Bellingham has largely been accountable for that, his “motorcycle” runs into the penalty space fuelling his 16-goal tally in La Liga from his busy midfield position.
However Madrid proceed to shape-shift, because the graphic beneath highlights. In Bellingham’s final 5 video games, he has been all-action towards Mallorca, a final-third receiver towards Almeria, a deeper build-up constructor at Getafe, a left-sided help for Vinicius Junior within the newest Madrid derby, and a drifting ahead towards Girona. Madrid will probably be hoping {that a} sprained ankle gained’t maintain Bellingham out for Tuesday’s tie, given his continued affect in Carlo Ancelotti’s assault.
Ancelotti is but to call an unchanged line-up this season. His tactical tweaks throughout a versatile midfield, alongside a motivated supporting forged of proficient fringe gamers, are serving to maintain Madrid recent.
Joselu to the rescue with a brace in that Getafe sport, whereas Brahim Diaz performed himself into rivalry for this knockout tie with a stunning dribbling efficiency towards Atletico. His capacity to play on both facet or obtain the ball in tight areas and tip-tap his approach into the penalty space is one other string to Actual Madrid’s low-block-breaking bow.
They are going to face RB Leipzig, who often struggled to maintain a robust foothold in group-stage video games towards Younger Boys and Pink Star Belgrade. After holding a 54 per cent area tilt benefit of their 2022-23 Champions League run (which ended within the spherical of 16), that determine plummeted to 38 per cent this time round. That isn’t a case of Manchester Metropolis, who have been additionally of their group, stacking the statistical deck, both — Leipzig had the decrease area tilt in 5 of their six group video games, solely having fun with a bonus in a 3-1 win over Pink Star at Pink Bull Enviornment.
Much more worrying is their lack of trademark ahead urgent — they’re successful simply 3.7 possessions within the attacking third per sport. Solely 5 groups managed fewer excessive regains per sport within the group stage, and Leipzig additionally had the sixth-lowest urgent depth (16.1 passes per defensive motion, PPDA).
There’s hope, nevertheless, within the magic toes of Xavi Simons, who has been holding his personal goal-of-the-season competitors since his mortgage transfer from Paris Saint-Germain. From a curling effort at Union Berlin to keepy-uppies and a spinning shot at Leverkusen, Simons, 20, will deliver the inspiration behind a promising strike partnership in Lois Openda and Benjamin Sesko that’s slowly clicking into gear.
Pardon the pun, however this has been a transitional 12 months for Leipzig. Though their Champions League type doesn’t provide an excessive amount of in the way in which of encouragement, a capability to hit sharply on the break — as they did effectively on the Etihad — provides them a glimmer of hope.
Many individuals may suppose it’s a foregone conclusion that Arsenal will make it previous Porto with ease, however Sergio Conceicao’s facet are the extra skilled within the competitors lately.
Porto have made it by to the Champions League knockouts for the third time in 4 seasons, with their success constructed upon a robust defensive basis led by Pepe, their 40-year-old captain.
With the seventh-best defensive document throughout Europe’s prime seven leagues (0.9 xG towards per 90 minutes), Arsenal’s just lately profligate assault should be firing to interrupt down Porto, however a compromise should be reached in possession.
Porto are used to having plenty of the ball within the Primeira Liga, with their common of 62 per cent possession being larger than any facet in Portugal. As you possibly can see from their enjoying fashion wheel beneath, Porto wish to flow into the ball (83 out of 99) to work good openings in assault — with their common ‘central development’ score (50 out of 99) highlighting that they’re equally adept at utilizing their wingers or full-backs to cross.
Conceicao’s males are unlikely to have that very same territorial dominance towards Arsenal, so they may have to adapt.
As PSV discovered, groups who’ve gone toe-to-toe with Arteta’s facet have discovered themselves undone extra simply than those that sit in a deeper block and look to frustrate.
Porto will not be counter-attacking of their fashion, however their power in extensive areas — helped by the attacking expertise of Brazilian duo Galeno and Pepe — might expose an Arsenal again line that does have its weaknesses in full-back areas.
Because the second-weakest remaining facet in Opta’s Energy Rankings, Lazio are unlikely to hassle Bayern Munich throughout two legs. That is the primary time that Lazio have reached the Champions League knockout spherical since 2020-21, after they have been drawn towards… Bayern Munich.
A easy have a look at the Serie A desk would counsel that Lazio are unlikely to pose a sustained menace to Bayern’s defence, as Mauricio Sarri’s facet sit in eighth place, 5 factors away from fourth spot.
Ciro Motionless shouldn’t be the undisputed starter he was and Lazio’s likelihood creation is among the many backside half of Europe’s prime seven leagues (37 out of 99).
Lazio have the eighth-best xG per 90 (1.2) in Serie A and they scored seven targets throughout their six Champions League group-stage video games — no staff scored fewer in qualifying for the knockouts of this 12 months’s competitors.
The constructive view can be that the Italians have a squad stacked with expertise, with regulars Adam Marusic, Manuel Lazzari, Felipe Anderson, Luis Alberto, and Motionless all aged 30 or older.
The damaging take is that Sarri merely has an ageing squad that can’t play with the identical depth as different elite sides. Amongst these remaining within the competitors, solely Atletico Madrid have fielded an older common age (29.8 years) than Lazio (29.5).
The powerhouse of Bayern Munich lies in wait. Thomas Tuchel’s facet might have stuttered within the Bundesliga after a pivotal loss final weekend to table-topping Bayer Leverkusen, however Bayern bulldozed their technique to the final 16 as the one unbeaten staff in Group A.
It’s troublesome to look past the dynamic attacking duo of Harry Kane and Leroy Sane when discussing Bayern’s output this season. No participant in Europe’s prime leagues has scored greater than Kane’s 24 targets, and no participant has extra assists than Leroy Sane (11) — that tells you just about every thing it’s essential to know.
Bayern regularly flirt with crises in any given season, however with a beneficial last-16 draw, will probably be troublesome to think about an consequence totally different from three years in the past.
From one in every of final season’s league champions to a different, Napoli nonetheless have a lot to show in what has been a extra tumultuous marketing campaign to this point.
Advancing from Group C forward of Braga and Union Berlin didn’t show to be a lot of a fuss, however a woeful begin in Serie A led to a swift finish to Rudi Garcia’s tenure in November. The staff’s performances have been even worse beneath his substitute, Walter Mazzarri. Whereas Garcia’s Napoli had a median xG benefit of 1.9 to 0.9 throughout a dozen Serie A matches, the previous Watford boss has nearly completely seen that stage out to a 1.2 to 1.0 throughout his 11 video games in cost.
Any staff fielding Victor Osimhen and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia shouldn’t be simple to beat, however Barcelona will fancy their probabilities, regardless of their very own down 12 months. With Xavi stepping away from his managerial submit in June after two and a half years, can his facet ship him out on a excessive observe?
Barring an unimaginable Champions League run, Xavi’s last season will finish and not using a main trophy. With their Supercopa de Espana and Copa del Rey campaigns ended and a large hole between them and table-topping Actual Madrid, the supervisor will probably be extra fondly remembered for his enjoying exploits. Robert Lewandowski has seen his scoring charge gradual to 10 targets from 22 La Liga appearances, and he managed only one aim within the group stage.
It isn’t all unhealthy past, thoughts you. This 12 months’s Barcelona are taking extra photographs, hitting the goal extra regularly and registering a better xG per sport than they did after they gained the title in 2022-23. Ilkay Gundogan’s big-game mettle will probably be closely leaned upon given the variety of youthful attackers enjoying the majority of minutes behind Lewandowski.
Spanish hopes don’t finish there. Actual Sociedad are every thing you anticipate from a high-achieving La Liga facet — affected person in possession, brimming with technical high quality, slick and creative within the last third — however they’re additionally fuelled by a sense of intense native pleasure.
Anoeta will probably be rocking when La Actual welcome PSG to host their second-ever Champions League knockout tie. Together with 17 homegrown gamers, supervisor Imanol Alguacil — the most important super-fan of all — is for certain to make it an evening that San Sebastian gained’t ever neglect.
Alguacil has remodeled the primary staff in his six-year stint as coach, and though they’ve misplaced the magic of David Silva and the cutting-edge of Alexander Isak in latest campaigns, they proceed to churn out academy graduates who play their approach.
His staff don’t simply maintain the ball nicely, they press excessive and are consultants at disrupting the play. No La Liga facet has allowed fewer opposition PPDA this season, and solely Getafe have dedicated extra fouls in Europe’s ‘huge 5’ leagues this season, lots of that are tactical to dam the counter-attack. Their score of 94 out of 99 for defensive ‘depth’ outlines the problems that they will create with their excessive press.
PSG face a stern examination of their possession sport, notably in the event that they fail to take a bonus into the second leg away from residence.
Luis Enrique’s facet have greater than sufficient high quality to compete — Kylian Mbappe has scored 30 targets in 29 video games this season and is a prospect not like another that this youthful Actual Sociedad facet have confronted. Kang-in Lee, Warren Zaire-Emery and Vitinha add to an thrilling new-look facet.
One main focus beneath Luis Enrique has been creating extra open house for Mbappe to run into relatively than involving him additional again throughout their build-up. PSG take 39 per cent of their touches in the precise third, an advisable thought while you make use of Ousmane Dembele and Achraf Hakimi. Mbappe has thrived with out sharing leading-man standing, however no different PSG participant has scored greater than six targets on this season’s Ligue 1.
Consequently, the blueprint to eliminating PSG feels concerningly easy: have your defence clog PSG’s proper channel and right-central half-space to gradual Hakimi’s progress and power a swap of play in the direction of Mbappe in a much less harmful space of the pitch.
With apologies to Randal Kolo Muani and Goncalo Ramos, Luis Enrique’s system is designed to funnel the ball in the direction of Mbappe. This has made them a far much less intimidating foe than the bygone iterations fielding the game’s demigods. Three groups superior to the knockout stage by successful solely two of their six group matches: Copenhagen, PSV and PSG, of their weirdly mortal new period.
European success, as at all times, is the aim for the French champions, however this may not be a easy step of their newest try to take Europe’s most coveted crown.
(Prime photograph: Getty Pictures)
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