Rawalpindi takes the lead in troubled Pakistan

Following the violent events in Pakistan on 9 May following the arrest of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan in an alleged corruption case, the country’s powerful military establishment has decided to decimate Mr Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI). .khan. Negotiations are now off the table as the Army leadership quickly dismantles the ‘Imran Khan Project’, which it had launched with much fanfare a few years ago. Following his unceremonious removal last year, Khan and his PTI attacked the military in unprecedented fashion. Mr. Khan’s arrest on May 9 was possibly linked to him publicly accusing and naming an inter-service intelligence officer, Major General Faisal Naseer, over alleged assassination attempts on Mr. Khan’s life.

Never before has a civilian leader, especially an opposition leader, in Pakistan’s 75-year history, challenged the Army in the way that Mr. Khan has. The Pakistani army and its intelligence agencies are now taking revenge for a year of public humiliation on them by Khan and his party leaders.

This episode has provided the military establishment with an additional opportunity to tighten its grip on the democratic institutions in Pakistan, regain public confidence, quite strongly, and create a new political arrangement or “hybrid” regime. More importantly, the Chief of Army Staff (COAS), General Syed Asim Munir, sees this as an opportunity to step out of the shadow of his predecessor (General Qamar Javed Bajwa) and shape his own legacy. . Before his retirement, General Bajwa, in a speech last November, stated that the army’s role in politics was “unconstitutional” and that he had decided to remain “apolitical”. General Munir has also made similar claims, but the PTI’s brutal crackdown belies those claims.

During the May 9 protests, Khan’s supporters had stormed the army headquarters in Rawalpindi, Pakistan’s center of power. For the first time in Pakistan’s existence, civilians carried out a “symbolic coup” against the powerful military establishment, in a way telling them to stay in their barracks.

Unsurprisingly, this muscle flexing has backfired. The PTI cadres allegedly involved in the May 9 violence will face trials in military courts under the Army Law and the Official Secrets Law. It should be noted that this action by the Army has received the support of the current government of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM). The Army is also running some well-crafted propaganda to present itself as a “victim” of PTI-led “terrorism”.

The Army has not stopped. Almost the entire top leadership of the PTI “officially” left the party after giving in to pressure from the military establishment and avoiding jail time. The PTI is now struggling to survive, and Mr. Khan is rapidly losing his support base and motivation to continue his fight for “Haqeeqi Azadi”, or “true independence”.

political dynamics

However, Khan’s political problems go further. The violence on May 9 has also resulted in the indefinite postponement of provincial elections in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Mr. Khan and the PTI had long called for elections in these provinces. In addition, the probability that the PDM government will hold nationwide general elections later this year has also decreased significantly. These dynamics will further exacerbate political instability and enhance the role of the military in politics.

In these circumstances, the military establishment may no longer need a coup to exercise control in the country. Traditionally, weak coalition governments and “hybrid” political structures, such as Mr Khan’s PTI government, have provided more space for the military to assert control. In fact, many analysts have described the current political arrangement in Pakistan as a “quasi-military dictatorship.”

The army is using Mr. Khan and the PTI as an example to warn other political parties not to cross the red line. Furthermore, the ‘Imran Khan project’ is believed to have posed significant threats to unity within the armed forces, as there have been reports of internal divisions within the Army over this issue.

Consequently, the crackdown on PTI supporters and the proposed use of military courts are also taking place to target suspected dissidents within the security establishment. The Pakistan Army is reportedly ready to take serious action against its own officers who did not show the expected resistance against the pro-Khan protesters. For example, the former commander of the Lahore Corps, Lt. Gen. Salman Fayyaz Ghani, is under investigation for allegedly allowing PTI sympathizers to enter his home and carry out vandalism on 9 May. Media reports claim that Lt. Gen. Ghani’s wife is closely associated with the Chief Justice of Pakistan, Umar Ata Bandial. The PDM government has targeted Judge Bandial for allegedly favoring Mr Khan, demanding his resignation for causing “lawlessness” and a “crisis”. It is worth noting that Mr. Khan’s support within the country’s judiciary has caused tensions between the judiciary and the military.

This brewing civil unrest will further exacerbate the problems facing Pakistan, which is already grappling with a severe economic crisis and numerous security challenges. The May 9 protests have given the army ample justification for ending Khan’s political career and fragmenting the PTI. With the military establishment emerging stronger and civilian institutions weakening, the people of Pakistan will bear the brunt, facing food shortages, power outages and limited fuel supplies along with skyrocketing inflation. The prospect of political and economic stability in Pakistan remains a distant dream.

Sameer Patil is a Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation. Sarral Sharma is a PhD Fellow at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Both writers have previously served in the Secretariat of the National Security Council. The opinions expressed are personal.