Witold Jurasz, James Rothwell and Joe Barnes
Russia is planning an armed “provocation” on Polish soil to test NATO’s resolve, the United States has warned.
Polish critical infrastructure could be targeted by missiles and drones, or Russian soldiers could cross the border into NATO territory.
Washington has issued several warnings to Warsaw about the plot, sources close to Polish president Karol Nawrocki told Polish news outlet Onet, which, along with the London Telegraph, is owned by Axel Springer and is part of its Global Reporters Network.
The goal of the Russian provocation would be to escalate tensions and force Western allies to suspend aid to Ukraine. It could be launched in a matter of months.
Polish security sources have also not ruled out a more conventional attack, such as a small ground incursion of Russian soldiers across NATO’s eastern flank.
According to Onet’s security sources, provocation scenarios could include a drone attack on critical infrastructure, such as power stations, or simulated air strikes that would force Poland to activate its air defence systems.
One Polish intelligence source said that in the most extreme scenario, a “hybrid attack in the border region” could occur.
The same source said an armed incursion involving Russian or Belarusian soldiers was conceivable.
This could be presented by Russia as an accidental straying into Polish territory because of a GPS failure, or as a dubious rescue mission to retrieve a helicopter suffering from a malfunction.
Russia would count on the fact that, instead of opening fire on Russian or Belarusian soldiers in such a situation, Poland would be forced by the US to negotiate with Russia or Belarus rather than respond forcefully, Polish sources told Onet.
A scenario in which the Russians would withdraw from Poland as a result of those negotiations, rather than because they were forced to do so by military means, would be seen as a win from Moscow’s perspective.
An end to Western support for Ukraine could even be a central Russian demand of such talks in return for withdrawal from Poland.
The US “systematically informs Poland about ever-new Russian plans for a conventional attack on NATO’s eastern flank, from which Poland is by no means excluded”, said a source close to the Polish president.
A second source, an ambassador to one of Poland’s allies in the NATO alliance, also confirmed that a provocation in one of the Baltic States and/or Poland is a serious risk, as did a third source in the Polish Defence Ministry.
A fourth Baltic security source confirmed to the Telegraph that such plans had been discussed in Moscow. Russia may then attempt to claim the provocation was carried out by Ukraine afterwards.
Any ground-based attack by Russia could be staged either from Kaliningrad, the Russian exclave to the north of Poland, which hosts nuclear weapons, or from Belarus to the east.
Such methods are Russia’s only realistic means of staging a provocation. Because its forces are tied up in Ukraine, it lacks the capacity to wage full-scale war on NATO allies.
While Poland remains a staunch security ally of Ukraine, relations have become strained in recent months because of differing views on Second World War-era history and the two countries’ competing farming industries. It is feared Moscow may seek to widen that rift.
The Telegraph also understands that a recent naval exercise in Latvia, in which the US Navy and Marines played a central role, was designed to remind Moscow that any attack on the eastern flank would be a de facto attack on American troops.
Worst-case scenario
In a worst-case scenario for NATO, Russia’s aim would be to undermine Polish sovereignty, expose NATO as a paper tiger, and force the withdrawal of Western support for Ukraine – all without triggering a conventional war with the alliance.
A member of the Polish Ministry of Defence’s leadership confirmed to Onet the possibility of a Russian provocation, but noted that Poland had already conducted exercises aimed at warning Moscow of a devastating NATO response.
From Moscow’s perspective, a provocation directed at Poland would be a better option than a provocation against one of the Baltic States, European security sources said.
Onet’s sources stressed that any Russian provocation would not resemble a “classic” or conventional war, and that Moscow had not yet fully committed to conducting one.
Poland shares borders with Belarus, a Russian puppet state controlled by Alexander Lukashenko, an ally of Vladimir Putin, and the exclave of Kaliningrad.
The Telegraph understands that NATO could respond to any Russian provocation with direct attacks on Kaliningrad, which Holger Neumann, the German air force chief, has cited as a potential target.
Last month, the head of the Luftwaffe told the Telegraph that Germany would defend “every inch” of NATO territory, including Poland, if it were forced to act defensively.
He singled out Kaliningrad, St Petersburg, which hosts key naval assets, the Kola Peninsula, where Moscow is amassing nuclear weapons, and the Black Sea – home to Russia’s Black Sea fleet – as potential targets in the event of a conflict.
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