Sheikh Hasina’s Exit Renews Concerns of India-Pakistan Conflict in Bangladesh

The recent resignation of Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, which ended her 15-year rule, will have significant implications for the region, particularly in terms of the recalibration of Pakistan’s policy toward the country.

Indian media coverage of violent events in Dhaka over the last few weeks has been rife with allegations of the role that Pakistani and Chinese intelligence agencies may have had in inciting the protests that led to Hasina’s downfall. Some reports allege that Pakistan’s spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), collaborated with the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the student wings of the Jamaat-e-Islami to orchestrate the regime change.

While these allegations have not been substantiated with concrete evidence, they do raise questions about the geopolitical dynamics at play. The possibility of Pakistan and China seeking to strengthen their ties with Bangladesh at the expense of India’s influence in the region cannot be overlooked.

Notably, during Hasina’s rule, Bangladesh’s relationship with India remained strong, which was perceived by Pakistan as undermining its interests in the region. However, with Hasina’s departure, the dynamics in the country’s political landscape are poised to shift.

The fall of a leader perceived as sensitive to India’s security and trade interests in Bangladesh is a significant blow to New Delhi. While India did enjoy good relations with Hasina’s Awami League party and its leadership, it doesn’t have that same kind of relationship with other political parties, such as the BNP and its former ally Jamaat-e-Islami.

On the other hand, the relationship between Pakistan and Bangladesh under Hasina’s rule remained largely formal, with Islamabad viewing Dhaka’s close ties with New Delhi as undermining its interests. The Hasina regime regularly used anti-Pakistan rhetoric to crack down on protests, by calling the protesters “razakars.” In Bangladesh, the word “razakar” is considered insulting, as it refers to people who supported Pakistan’s military operations in 1971 to quell Bangladesh’s freedom movement. Hasina’s attempts to link the demonstrations to Pakistan to discredit the protesters not only sparked outrage but also became a rallying cry for mass opposition to her regime.

As the new government takes office in Dhaka, Islamabad may be keen to rekindle ties with Bangladesh and reduce India’s influence in the country. It is worth noting that Pakistan has not forgotten the role India allegedly played in the secession of East Pakistan in 1971, which created the independent state of Bangladesh.

Pakistan’s first formal statement following Hasina’s fall signals that there was no love lost between the two sides. In the wake of Hasina’s ousting from power, Pakistan expressed solidarity with the people of Bangladesh, saying that the “resilient spirit and unity of the Bangladeshi people will lead them towards a harmonious future.” Pakistani officials have also appreciated the “protesters’ determination and resilience in standing up against the previous regime marred by corruption.”

It is clear that Pakistan wants to capitalize on the regime change in Bangladesh to revive its bilateral relationship and possibly reposition itself in the region to push back against India’s influence. However, the incoming parties in power in Bangladesh will likely want to avoid the impression of being supported by one country or another, meaning Pakistan will have to approach the situation with caution.

The anti-Pakistan narrative pushed by the outgoing government in Bangladesh may now subside, presenting an opportunity for Pakistan to offer productive bilateral ties and mutual growth opportunities.

Pakistan will need to tread sensibly, as the recent protests in Bangladesh were primarily driven by internal factors rather than external influences. For instance, the references to the 1971 independence of Bangladesh during the protests does not mean that Bangladeshis are more favorably inclined to Pakistan. Rather, it means that the protesters reviled their own government for labeling them with derogatory remarks, which added fuel to the fire.

As the dust settles in Bangladesh, the international community will be closely watching to see which direction the country takes under the interim government and the potential realignment of regional alliances. Pakistan, like many other regional countries, will keenly observe the kind of opportunities the new regime and political landscape could offer the country.

Nevertheless, the implications of the recent developments will have far-reaching consequences for South Asian stability and geopolitical dynamics, including Pakistan’s feud with India.