Short-lived Russian mercenary revolt could have long-term consequences for Putin

Russian government troops withdrew from the streets of Moscow and people flocked to parks and cafes on Sunday after a short lived rebellion by mercenary forces that weakened President Vladimir Putin and raised questions about his ability to wage war in Ukraine.

The march on the capital by Wagner’s troops led by Yevgeny Prigozhin and the overnight agreement that ultimately stopped it badly dented Putin’s reputation as a leader willing to ruthlessly punish anyone who challenges his authority. That may open the door for others who are unhappy with Putin’s two-decade hold on power, especially after his ill-fated invasion of Ukraine.

Under the terms of the agreement, Prigozhin will enter into exile in Belarus But he won’t face prosecution and neither will his forces. Neither Putin nor Prigozhin has been heard since the deal, reportedly brokered by Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko, was announced late Saturday.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken described the events of the weekend as “extraordinary”, recalling that 16 months ago Putin seemed ready to seize the Ukrainian capital and now he has had to defend Moscow from the forces led by his former protégé.

“I think we’ve seen more cracks emerge in the Russian facade,” Blinken said on NBC’s Meet the Press. “It is too early to say exactly where they are going and when they get there, but we certainly have all kinds of new questions that Putin will have to address in the coming weeks and months.”

It was not yet clear what the fissures opened by the 24-hour rebellion would mean for that war. But it resulted in some of the best forces fighting for Russia in the Ukraine being withdrawn from the battlefield: Prigozhin’s own Wagner troops and the Chechens sent to stop them.

But the Ukrainians were waiting and some analysts suggested Russian infighting could create opportunities for their army, which is in the early stages of a counter-offensive to retake territory seized by Russian forces.

“These events will have been a great comfort to the Ukrainian government and military,” said Ben Barry, a senior fellow for ground warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Another question is what will happen to Wagner, owned by Prigozhin, in general. The military contractor has deployed forces to several countries where they are believed to be fighting for Russian interests.

Under the terms of the deal that halted Prigozhin’s advance, Wagner’s troops who did not back the revolt will be offered contracts directly with the Russian military, putting them under the control of the warlords Prigozhin was trying to oust.

The deal appears to be a “snap” arrangement designed to protect Prigozhin and safeguard his money and family, said Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland.

“What we don’t know is if he saved Wagner,” O’Brien wrote in his online newsletter. “It is not clear how many of his mercenaries will come with him to Belarus, or how many will now be forced to sign contracts with the Russian army.”

In their lightning advance, Prigozhin’s forces seized control of two military centers in southern Russia on Saturday and came within 200 kilometers (120 miles) of Moscow before withdrawing.

In a scene that plays on Putin’s fear of a popular uprising, video taken by The Associated Press on Saturday in Rostov-on-Don showed people cheering Wagner’s troops as they departed. Some ran to shake hands with Prigozhin, who was riding in a van.

The regional governor later said that all the troops had left the city. Russian news agencies also reported that the Lipetsk authorities confirmed that Wagner’s forces had left that region, which lies on the way to Moscow from Rostov.

Moscow had prepared for the arrival of Wagner’s forces by erecting checkpoints with armored vehicles and troops on the southern edge of the city. Some 3,000 Chechen soldiers were withdrawn from the fighting in Ukraine and transferred there early Saturday morning, Chechen state television reported. Russian troops armed with machine guns set up checkpoints on the southern outskirts of Moscow. Crews dug up sections of road to slow the march.

By Sunday afternoon, troops had withdrawn from the capital and people poured into the streets and into cafes. Traffic returned to normal and roadblocks and checkpoints were removed, but Red Square remained closed to visitors. On the highways leading to Moscow, crews repaired the wrecked roads just hours before in a panic.

Presenters on state-controlled television stations portrayed the deal that ended the crisis as a display of Putin’s wisdom and broadcast footage of Wagner’s troops withdrawing from Rostov-on-Don to the relief of local residents who they feared a bloody battle for control of the city.

People who were interviewed by Channel 1 praised Putin’s role.

But the US-based Institute for the Study of War warned that “the Kremlin now faces a profoundly unstable balance.”

The “deal is a short-term solution, not a long-term solution,” wrote the institute, which has followed the war in Ukraine from the beginning.

Prigozhin had demanded the dismissal of Defense Minister Sergei Shoiguwhom Prigozhin has long criticized in withering terms for his conduct of the war in ukraine.

The United States had intelligence that Prigozhin had been amassing his forces near the Russian border for some time. That conflicts with Prigozhin’s claim that his rebellion was a response to an attack on his camps in Ukraine on Friday by the Russian military.

Announcing the rebellion, Prigozhin accused Russian forces of attacking Wagner’s camps in Ukraine with rockets, helicopter gunships and artillery. The Defense Ministry denied attacking the camps.

One possible motivation for Prigozhin’s rebellion was the Russian Defense Ministry’s demand, which Putin backed, that private companies sign contracts by July 1. Prigozhin had refused to do so.

___

Associated Press writers Danica Kirka in London and Nomaan Merchant in Washington contributed.

___

Follow AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine-war