Silvio Berlusconi is back in business

ROME — Guess who’s back?

Just when it looked like Silvio Berlusconi’s political career was finally over, he has thrust himself back into the frontline of Italian politics, offering to prop up the fragile coalition government by approving the budget. 

It didn’t look like Berlusconi was coming back this time. He didn’t return to public office after a conviction for tax fraud, and was ousted as leader of a right-wing coalition by Matteo Salvini in 2018. Then he was hospitalized with COVID-19 in September. Support for his party, Forza Italia, has halved since the last election to just 7 percent.

But the three-time prime minister, and current MEP, has once again defied expectations, returning to the center of the political scene and positioning himself as a power broker while simultaneously defending his vast business interests. 

The current Italian government — made up of the Democratic Party and 5Star Movement — is not in a strong position and looked set for defeat when its budget plans are voted on in December. Its majority in the Senate has been eroded — with 16 5Star senators having crossed benches this legislature — and the likelihood of some MPs being unable to vote on the budget because of coronavirus made its position even more fragile. Berlusconi’s support would shore up the numbers. 

By supporting the budget, Berlusconi claims to be acting in the national interest, after calls from President Sergio Mattarella for dialogue and unity. “We have always put the interest of the country before the interests of the party,” Berlusconi said in an interview with his family’s newspaper, Il Giornale.

“We are in dialogue with the government,” said one close Berlusconi adviser. “If they accept two or three of our proposals, fundamentally proposals supporting the self-employed and freelancers and a tax freeze, we will approve the budget.” 

Economy Minister Roberto Gualtieri, of the Democratic Party, said the government supported Forza Italia’s proposals and described Berlusconi’s willingness to collaborate as “positive.” 

But Berlusconi isn’t one to give away something for nothing. So what’s in it for him? 

‘Indirect’ benefit

The government in November came to the rescue of the Berlusconi-led Mediaset company, introducing legislation protecting it from takeover efforts by French media conglomerate Vivendi. Dubbed the “Save Mediaset” amendment in the media, it was widely interpreted as a quid pro quo for Berlusconi’s support. 

Vivendi owns 29 percent of Mediaset as well as 24 percent of former phone monopoly Telecom Italia. The new legislation would require Italy’s communications watchdog to investigate for up to six months companies that operate in the telecoms and media sectors.

The adviser to Berlusconi insisted that the help for Mediaset was not part of a deal but acknowledged the legislation was useful to the company.

“Obviously it has come at a good time, but we were unaware of it, so we are not guilty,” he said.  

The minister for economic development who proposed the Mediaset protection legislation, Stefano Patuanelli of the 5Star Movement, denied there had been pressure from Berlusconi’s camp and said the positive outcome for Mediaset was an “indirect result” of the amendment.

Supporting the coalition provides an opportunity for political gains for Berlusconi, as well as business advantages, according to Francesco Clementi, a professor in the department of political science at the University of Perugia.

“He can take the credit for grants to the self-employed and gain their political support. The move also usefully reminds his partners further to the right [in the opposition alliance] that they still need him to maintain broad appeal to moderates,” he said. 

One of these partners, Matteo Salvini of the right-wing League, accused Berlusconi of abandoning the opposition to protect his business interests. The League retaliated by trying to block the Mediaset legislation, voting against it at committee level, abstaining in parliament and complaining that it was unconstitutional. 

Giorgia Meloni, leader of the far-right Brothers of Italy, asked Berlusconi not to “play games,” pointing out that they govern together in 15 of the 20 Italian regions.

Slippery Silvio

The shift by Berlusconi has fueled discussion about whether Forza Italia could be part of an enlarged governing majority. Three of Berlusconi’s MPs defected to the League last week, saying they were “not comfortable with Forza Italia’s increasing closeness to the government and its flirtation with the Democratic Party.”

But that might prove difficult to swallow. Berlusconi’s party joining the governing coalition would surely be unacceptable to the 5Stars, who are the largest force in government, and for whom Berlusconi’s merging of business and political interests has always been a bugbear. 

5Star MP Barbara Lezzi said it was “dangerous” to treat Berlusconi as a partner because he has a track record of being untrustworthy in political partnerships. She wrote on Facebook that “he can’t be in government with us. We know that he is faking it when he pretends to be responsible.”

The final vote on the budget will take place later in December but Berlusconi’s support for the government last week during a vote on a budget increase to cover Christmas losses for businesses because of coronavirus likely indicates the direction of travel. If Berlusconi does follow through in committing his support to the government, it will confirm the possibility of an alternative coalition in parliament, redrawing political lines, said Clementi. 

Such a coalition could be decisive in the election of the next president, who will be elected for a seven-year term by parliament in February 2022. Having a chance to choose the president, who has wide powers to appoint ministers and call elections, will have been a key element in Berlusconi’s strategy.

Having Berlusconi and his party join the coalition could also play a decisive role in keeping the country distanced from the right wing and closer to Europe and NATO stance. The irony of having a a disruptive force such as Berlusconi providing stability won’t be lost on Italy’s EU partners.