Syria’s stakes within the Israel-Gaza battle

Assad’s alternatives

The Assad regime dedicated critical battle crimes and different abuses in its efforts to take care of energy because the 2011 Arab Spring. Simply final month a French court docket issued a world arrest warrant for Assad and others within the Syrian authorities and navy for alleged use of chemical weapons. But Damascus is making an attempt to capitalize on the outrage throughout the Islamic world and far of the World South by Israel’s bloody navy marketing campaign in Gaza and the seemingly unconditional assist it has acquired from america.

“The foremost profit that Syria is prone to see from the Gaza battle is the harm it can do to America’s status and standing within the Arab world,” mentioned Joshua Landis, director of the Heart for Center East Research on the College of Oklahoma, in an interview with RS. “Biden’s unflinching assist to Israel in its effort to kill Palestinians in Gaza will diminish Washington’s capability to rally Arab and Muslim international locations in opposition to Syria and Iran,” he added.

There may be much less give attention to the Syrian regime’s human rights abuses now that the world is paying a lot nearer consideration to the Gaza disaster. “After over a decade of battle, which witnessed unprecedented brutality and barbarism, Damascus was poised to argue that Israeli brutality and barbarism cleansed a few of its personal deeds,” in line with Joseph A. Kechichian, a senior fellow on the King Faisal Centre in Riyadh.

Damascus can be thrilled to see the enlargement of the U.S.-brokered Abraham Accords to normalize relations between Israel and Arab states come to a screeching halt. Going again to President Hafez al-Assad’s period (1970-2000), Damascus has vehemently opposed Arab states formally recognizing Israel, starting with Egypt in 1979. Inside this context, the truth that the Gaza disaster makes Saudi-Israeli normalization most unlikely for the foreseeable future is constructive from Damascus’s perspective. The truth that the peace treaty between Jordan and Israel is extra susceptible as we speak than at any time because it was signed in 1994 can be a supply of satisfaction to the regime.

“The battle in Gaza is reviving the relevance of the resistance entrance within the Arab world,” in line with Landis. “Not solely the Syrian opposition, however the Arab world extra typically has scoffed on the impotence of the resistance entrance lately. At present, Arabs are once more rooting for resistance. The Abraham Accords and American diplomacy look too anti-Arab and too pro-Israel,” he defined.

The Gaza disaster is just not solely additional solidifying Syria’s decades-old alliances, but additionally accelerating the method of reconciliation between Assad and his former enemies within the Center East, reminiscent of Saudi Arabia. This was underscored by Assad’s participation within the joint Group of Islamic Cooperation-Arab League emergency summit on Gaza held in Riyadh on November 11.

“[Assad] is making an attempt to reposition himself as a member of the membership after having been excluded and handled as a pariah between 2011 and 2022,” mentioned Karim Emile Bitar, who teaches worldwide relations at Saint Joseph College of Beirut, in an interview with RS.

The Riyadh summit marked the second time that Assad addressed the Arab League since his nation’s readmission to the group in Could. Whereas talking within the Saudi capital, he warned that the failure of Arab states to take concrete motion in opposition to Israel would deprive the summit of any which means. Assad additionally declared that no nation within the area must be partaking Tel Aviv in any “political course of” till Israel agrees to a ceasefire in Gaza.

“Past the irony that Assad’s speech represented—in spite of everything, Syrians, together with youngsters and civilians, had been focused with chemical weapons within the ongoing battle within the hapless nation — [he] didn’t point out that his forces destroyed hospitals and besieged and bombed Palestinians who beforehand sought refuge in Syria,” Kechichian famous.

Threats to Syria

Whereas the battle in Gaza bolsters Assad’s efforts to flee his pariah standing, particularly amongst Arab states, it additionally poses threats. With Damascus targeted on circumventing western sanctions and luring overseas funding for Syria’s reconstruction, Assad’s authorities is especially involved concerning the battle’s potential escalation right into a wider regional battle.

“Assad is determined for overseas funding in addition to inner funding,” in line with Landis. “Syrians desperately want stability. This battle reminds everybody that investing within the Center East is dangerous. Syria has grow to be the battle floor on which regional disputes are hashed out,” he instructed RS.

The battle has bolstered the significance of the Iran-led “axis of resistance” within the Center East and Syria’s key function in it. Based on Javad Heiran-Nia, the director of the Persian Gulf Research Group on the Heart for Scientific Analysis and Center East Strategic Research in Iran, “Syria performs the function of logistics on this battle and is the principle route of sending weapons and tools to Hamas and Hezbollah,” he instructed RS.

“Iranian forces are additionally current in Syria, and on this battle, Iran moved its forces in Syria from northern Syria and areas like Aleppo to southern Syria. Due to this fact, assaults on American positions in Syria are geared toward implementing Iran’s menace in opposition to America and Israel in an effort to forestall the battle from spreading to different areas on the one hand and growing the prices of accelerating American navy forces within the area alternatively,” added Heiran-Nia.

Given Syria’s scenario as a war-torn nation with components of its territory beneath overseas navy occupation, Damascus itself should perceive that it’s significantly susceptible to assault.

“[Assad] is aware of that he might be the weakest hyperlink if Israel proves incapable of dealing a extreme blow to Hamas and incapable of attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon. Some Syrians suppose that Israel might be tempted to attempt to assault the Syrian regime, to deprive Iran of one among its foremost allies,” mentioned Bitar.

But the identical elements that led Israel to forgo strikes to topple the federal government in Damascus in the course of the Syrian civil battle, when it was way more fragile, stay related. The uncertainty about any successor regime helped keep Israel’s hand on the time, and the identical issues could induce comparable warning now.