Taiwan’s ‘Mock Doomsdays’: A Chilling Look At War With China

At the other side of taiwanthe residents are preparing for the attack.

From Monday to Thursday of this week, Taiwan will hold a defense exercise simulating a chinese air raid, preparing civilians on what to do if China invades. And from Monday to Friday, Taiwan will hold a live fire exercise to test Taiwan’s combat readiness to respond to a chinese invasion, according to the Ministry of National Defense.

Civilians will be required to shelter in place when the defense drill is underway, according to CNAs. In some places, drivers on the streets will be asked to stop their cars and evacuate them, as well as public transport passengers, bringing cities to an almost complete standstill, according to the Taipei Department of Transportation.

The entire drill is aimed at reducing casualties in the event of an attack by China, which has been growing increasingly aggressive with Taiwan. In recent weeks, China has sent a record number of warships into the waters around Taiwan. According to US officials, the current US government assessment is that Chinese President Xi Jinping is working to be prepared for conflict in 2025 or 2027.

“Familiarity with the location of bomb shelters and evacuation procedures will help improve people’s response time and survivability in the face of real threats.” Taipei City Government he said in a statement.

To prepare civilians for a Chinese invasion, branch leaders of civil defense corps subdivisions They have been working with police to go over air raid exercises, evacuation guidelines and preparing emergency supplies and medical equipment, according to the Taipei city government.

Although China has been practicing what it would be like to block Taiwan.With warships, jets and an aircraft carrier, Taiwan is likely preparing for China to launch a different and more sudden type of attack, said Freddy Lim, a Taiwanese lawmaker.

“We think China’s strategy should be how to quickly seize Taiwan and avoid foreign intervention,” Lim told The Daily Beast in an interview this week. “They want to do it fast.”

The key for Taiwan will be an abrupt push, according to Tony Hu, the Pentagon’s first senior director for Taiwan.

“If China wants to take Taiwan, it must do it quickly and finish quickly and make Taiwan surrender before foreign forces can arrive to help,” Hu said. “A blockade is not going to work… A blockade, which takes months to take effect (to starve people), just won’t get them where they want… They don’t just give foreign forces a chance to develop and then there is zero chance of China winning a conflict over Taiwan.”

Part of the upcoming exercises is aimed at preparing the people of Taiwan for a Chinese invasion. But the other part of the exercises is aimed at sending a message to China that invading Taiwan will be too costly, according to Hu.

“It is very important that the people of Taiwan are resilient in order to recover and survive the type of attack that is expected from China. So it’s time to exercise, prepare people to be ready just in case. The fact that people are ready and prepared in itself is also a deterrent,” Hu told The Daily Beast.

“Hopefully the Communist Party, the leaders of the Communist Party, will recognize the fact that Taiwan is not easy for you to get, it will be an uphill battle for them to try to take Taiwan,” Hu added.

Taiwan is working to obtain National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) from the United States to prepare to defend Taiwan, Taiwan’s defense minister said this week.

Talks in the US Congress about sending NASAMS to Taiwan are ongoing, The Daily Beast has learned.

“Our highest priority in Asia must be ensuring that Taiwan has the capabilities and training to deter Chinese aggression,” Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID), a ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told The Daily Beast when asked about the NASAMS transfer talks.

Taiwan still needs better intelligence-sharing cooperation with the United States, as well as long-range weapons, stressed Lim, the Taiwanese lawmaker. It should also continue to work to be prepared to withstand a first, second, third and fourth wave of attacks from China, he said.

At this point, it is not clear that China believes it would lose if it attacked Taiwan, according to Lim.

“I don’t know” if China thinks it will lose, he admitted to The Daily Beast. “I think logically they should understand, especially when they see the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the response of the international communities and how resilient the Ukrainians are. So, logically, they should know that it is even more difficult to invade Taiwan from China and… they will face more resistance from the Taiwanese.”

However, bolstering Taiwan’s defenses is likely not enough to prepare for a Chinese invasion. Several other elements of a strong defense of Taiwan would inevitably rely on the United States and other allies, and President Joe Biden has said that US forces would defend Taiwan if China attacks Taiwan.

If China attacks Taiwan and the US moves to respond, it will almost certainly draw in US troops stationed in Japan. But it’s not clear that Japan is all that willing to join the fray, said Kevin Maher, former chief of the Office of Japan Affairs at the US State Department.

There could be a “two-pronged approach by China. One would be to take direct action against Taiwan at the same time and try to neutralize the ability of the US to send armed forces or resupply,” Maher told The Daily Beast. “At what point does Japan move beyond just cooperating with the US…but also cooperating with the US to defend Taiwan? That’s an evolving situation in Japan where the government thinks about it.”

Japan has renounced the use of force to settle international disputes since World War II. But part of Japan’s approach is changing: In 2015, then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe passed a law that would allow Japan respond militarily if an ally is attackedincreasing resistance from some concerned that Japan would fall into the crosshairs of other countries’ conflicts.

preparing for the worst

In a simulation organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the United States was able to counter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan—with the support of Japan.

But in the war game, which was organized by the Japan Strategic Studies Forum in Tokyo, communication failures between Japan, Taiwan and the United States were glaring, according to Maher, who participated as a representative of the United States.

Solving the lack of communication channels and combined operational planning in the coming years between Japan, Taiwan and the United States will be crucial in dealing with China.

“There must be some kind of mechanism so that we can talk to the Taiwanese. It’s obviously very politically sensitive because the Chinese would say: Well, you’re interfering in internal affairs,” he said.

Some of China’s latest aggressive moves, such as the record number of warships, might have more to do with sending a message domestically than Beijing trying to take dangerous steps into Taiwan, according to Lim.

“On the one hand, China tried to fix the relationship with the US, but on the other hand, China doesn’t want to show that it is soft on the Taiwan issue… it tries to calm down its own people,” he told The Daily Beast. “How to let your own people feel that when they’re trying to patch up the relationship with the international community, it doesn’t mean they’re going to go easy on Taiwan.”

Still, Xi’s rhetoric in recent days has been alarming.

During a visit to the Eastern Theater of the People’s Liberation Army, which is facing Taiwan, in recent days, Xi called for “improving war planning and combat… and increasing training in real combat conditions to enhance the capabilities of forces to fight and win.”

And while Xi’s orders to “plan for war” may be more about sending a message to his own people, Taiwan cannot take the chance that Xi decides to act on his threats.

“There is still a risk that he could make a false step. So I think we should always prepare… how we strengthen our national defense and how we strengthen our relationship with our allies,” Lim said. “That’s still the most important thing.”