Ten years on, Brexit still divides Britain and casts a pall over its economy

BREXIT USHERED IN A HARSH ECONOMIC REALITY

Backers of Brexit – commonly known as Brexiters – held out a vision that the British economy could thrive outside the EU by harnessing the buccaneering spirit that had once made it the world’s biggest.

Though the COVID-19 pandemic and the wars in Ukraine and more recently, the US-Israeli war on Iran have not helped, it’s clear that the British economy has not been revitalised.

Merchants have complained about the hurdles that they now have to clear when trading with their European neighbours – the 27-nation EU remains by far the UK’s biggest trading partner.

And though there are no tariffs imposed on British goods entering the EU, there is a raft of non-tariff barriers, such as cumbersome customs paperwork, border certifications, and visa restrictions. Many of the trade deals that the Brexiters touted, most notably one with the United States, have not materialised.

Experts say the British economy is between 4 per cent and 8 per cent smaller than it would have been had the country voted to remain in the EU. 

That would translate to much higher living standards and billions more pumped into public services, including the cherished National Health Service, which was promised an extra £350 million (US$468 million) a week by Brexit campaigners. That pledge was emblazoned on their big red campaigning bus.

“Brexit has made the UK economy smaller than it otherwise would have been,” said Jonathan Portes, professor at King’s College London.

“The effect has not been a sudden collapse, but a gradual and cumulative drag on trade, investment and productivity,” he wrote in an article for The UK in a Changing Europe think tank.

Brexiters argue, however, that leaving the EU is not something that can be judged in the short-term – there was always going to be a short-term economic disruption in return for greater control over an array of policy levers, including on migration.