Thai opposition pulls off a win, but loser can take all

The Thai people’s rejection of the military-backed government could not have been stronger. The opposition scored a sweeping defeat in Sunday’s general election, with Move Forward unofficially winning 152 parliamentary seats and Pheu Thai claiming 141 seats.

The headlines were totally humiliated. The two parties linked to the current government and led by the men who organized the 2014 coup, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha of the United Nations Party of Thailand (UTN) and Prawit Wongsuwan of the Palang Pracharath Party (PPP), they only won 76 of the 500 seats in the lower house of Parliament.

To put it in perspective, when people were given the option to vote for only one party, almost 70% of the electorate chose opposition parties. Only 1% chose the incumbent PPP while 13% chose Prayuth’s party.

Prawit himself was only chosen from the party list, not directly elected. This was as complete a rejection of military involvement in politics as could have been made.

Move Forward stole the show, stealing a following from Pheu Thai, who underperformed even in their northern stronghold. Move Forward thoroughly dominated Bangkok, winning 32 of 33 seats. In a year of rejection of ownership and a desire for real change, Pheu Thai was seen as too much of the status quo without enough progressive economic policies.

Other matches had mixed performances.

The Democratic Party, the oldest political party in Southeast Asia, has never recovered from its support for the 2006 coup and its working relationship with the military ever since. Party leader Jurin Laksanawisit resigned to take responsibility for the party’s poor results.

Bhumjaithai did well in voting for directly elected seats, especially in his stronghold, but was crushed on so-called party list ballots. That is, local politicians have their support bases, but there is less support for the party and its policies.

Whats Next?

If Thailand had a normal Westminster-style parliamentary system, Move Forward’s Pita Limjaroenrat would have a chance to form a coalition government.

He promised to do just that with Pheu Thai when he announced efforts to build a six-party coalition.

But Thailand is not a normal Westminster system. Remember, Pheu Thai received a plurality of votes in 2019, but also did not have a chance to form a government.

As part of the military’s attempt to bypass the opposition government, the 250-member military-appointed Senate vote for the prime minister.

That body includes the top six military leaders, and a third of the senators are uniformed military, meaning they are still under the chain of command, regardless of Senate rules that say they can vote as individuals.

The civilians are a mix of retired military and ultra-realists, who have already voiced reservations about Pita and Move Forward. Senator Kittisak Rattanawaraha, for example, has hinted that Pita has not shown enough loyalty to the royal institution to become prime minister.

As such, an opposition-led coalition needs 376 seats in the lower house to overcome a Senate veto.

Pita maintains that in the face of an overwhelming mandate, the Senate would have to endorse the popular will.

That’s naive. The Senate was created and appointed to do one thing: maintain a conservative-royalist hold on politics. While a handful of senators have indicated they will support the elected parties, the overwhelming majority are unlikely to do so.

Why would elites who back the military and the monarchy unilaterally give up the Senate’s role in selecting the prime minister when doing so would hand the government over to the opposition, one of whose parties favors significant reforms to the monarchy, including the modification of article 112? (lèse Majeste)?

Why would the Senate back a party seeking to amend the 2017 military-drafted constitution? Why would the military allow a party that plans to abolish conscription to rule?

For those elites, democracy is an existential threat, since it is a gateway to republicanism. They are not going to unilaterally cede the tools they have used to consolidate power.

Can Pita be disqualified?

Pita and other Move Forward leaders have a number of existing legal cases against them. Any of them could be disqualified by the Electoral Commission, which is not an independent body. In fact, the party itself could be dissolved, as a PPP lawmaker asked a court last week. Any citizen can bring Lèse-Majesté charges.

Remember that the courts dissolved the opposition Future Forward Party after its election victory in 2019 and stripped its leader, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, of his parliamentary seat, before hounding him with a myriad of lawsuits.

The Electoral Commission (EC) has 60 days to conduct investigations and potentially disqualify elected parliamentarians and/or dissolve parties if they find significant problems. The EC and the courts have never dissolved a pro-military party despite irregularities and criminal behavior.

The EC will leave no stone unturned. Unfortunately, the EC, which deserves credit for its competent election management, is also a tool that can be used to undermine those very elections.

In short, hopes for an opposition-led government rest on the assumption that the military, the Senate and the Electoral Commission are bona fide players who will back parties with a popular mandate and not protect their vested interests.

So is there a way forward for the opposition to form a government? That gets more complicated.

Pita has flatly refused to form a government with any party linked to the military or the 2014 coup.

His coalition could try to court Bhumjaithai, with his 70 seats. Its leader, Anutin Charnvirakul, had previously been a member of Pheu Thai and the third-largest party has some crossover appeal.

But Anutin would reject Move Forward’s policies on reforming the monarchy, and it’s unclear if Pita would make such a compromise on a central issue so soon.

It is also hard to see royalist elites not pressure Anutin to reject such an offer and sweeten the deal if he joins a conservative coalition. Regardless, Bhumjaithai is the king-making party in this election.

In short, it was a landslide in terms of the popular vote; but that will not necessarily translate into a governing coalition. A conservative coalition between Bhumjaithai, the PPP, the United Nations Party of Thailand and the Democratic Party is far more likely to form a government with overwhelming support from the Senate, and it is a real possibility that would lead to mass street protests.

A conservative coalition between Bhumjaithai, the PPP, the United Nations Party of Thailand and the Democratic Party is much more likely to form a government with the full backing of the Senate.

While the opposition won big, in Thai politics it is often the loser takes all.

Zachary Abuza is a professor at the National War College in Washington and an adjunct at Georgetown University. The opinions expressed here are his own and do not reflect the position of the US Department of Defense, the National War College, Georgetown University or Radio Free Asia.