Since the Afghan Taliban regained power in Kabul, there has been a gradual increase in insecurity in Pakistan, with an increase in terrorist acts. 2022 witnessed 27 percent more terrorist acts compared to 2021, and lethality continued to intensify, as evidenced by the Police Lines mosque suicide bombing in Peshawar. Thanks in large part to that attack, January 2023 was also one of the bloodiest months recorded for Pakistan, with 134 people killed and 254 injured in at least 44 terror incidents across the country. Across the border in Afghanistan, attacks have also targeted Pakistani interests, including an attack on Pakistan’s mission in Kabul in December 2022.
The border between Afghanistan and Pakistan has been the main scene of vulnerability. The frequent terrorist attacks during the last two years, especially in the provinces of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), indicate the resurgence of terrorism. However, a decrease in incidents of violence was observed in Punjab and Sindh, further from the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
Policy makers and the security establishment are aware of the growing insecurity in the country posed by prohibited teams such as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), Baloch Nationalist Army (BNA), Sindhudesh People’s Army (SPA), and the Khorasan province of the Islamic State (ISKP).
As the wave of terrorist violence mounted across Pakistan, elements of the TTP, BLA and ISKP have played an important role. Their resurgence has a lot to do with the evolving situation in Afghanistan, where most of these groups draw their strength, as well as use the landlocked country as a retreat. This has proven to be one of the most dangerous aspects for Pakistan.
Following the return of the Afghan Taliban to power in Kabul, a part of the Pakistani government hoped to enter into talks with the TTP. That turned out to be unfavorable. The lack of adequate political will to implement the National Action Plan (NAP) in letter and spirit has acted as a wrench in the works and has emboldened anti-state elements to operate with impunity. These factors have encouraged the TTP to regroup and intensify terrorism in the country.
Furthermore, the reluctance of the Afghan Taliban to stop the TTP and other elements from using their territory to attack Pakistan has resulted in more chaos and bloodshed. The TTP, ideologically associated with the Afghan Taliban, is finding a kind of legitimacy in its fight against Pakistan. Ultimately, the group is growing stronger and finding supporters and enablers for their nefarious plans inside Pakistan. The resurgence and regrouping of the TTP in KP, particularly in Swat, Malakand Division, has caused a wave of unrest among the locals. There are mass protests in tribal and settled areas against the intrusion of these foreign elements once again into the country.
In addition to the TTP, the Khorasan branch of the Islamic State and Baloch insurgent groups, such as the BLA and others, further intensified terrorist activities during 2022. The same year also saw the rise of the BNA and SPA as new terrorist organizations in Balochistan and Sindh. ; these groups continued to claim responsibility for terrorist activities in Lahore and Karachi, respectively. It is believed that the Sindhi insurgent groups they have developed a nexus at the tactical level with the Baloch elements targeting the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
In 2022, up to 512 terrorist acts (an average of 43 attacks per month) in Pakistan, targeting both security personnel and civilians. The attacks caused 980 deaths and 750 injuries. between them, at least 283 security personnel lost their lives in 2022, with 40 deaths in December 2022 alone. Compared to 2021 (850 casualties), there was a 14.47 percent increase in deaths in 2022 in Pakistan.
Most casualties have been to KP and Balochistan, KP accounts for 64 percent of all terrorist activity in Pakistan, followed by 26 percent in Balochistan, 5.8 percent in Sindh and 2.8 percent in Punjab. The overall level of violence it has increased exponentially in KP, with a 59 percent increase in deaths in 2022 (633 deaths, compared to 399 in 2021). Balochistan faced 254 deaths, along with 218 injuries in terror incidents. In Sindh, 57 people lost their lives and 58 were injured; 28 people were killed and 27 injured in Punjab.
In fact, the 2022 Annual Security Report prepared by the Center for Security Research and Studies indicates that there was a decrease in violent incidents in Punjab and Sindh in 2022, even as violence increased in KP and Balochistan. Punjab Recorded a 61 percent drop in violence, followed by a 50 percent reduction in Sindh.
Despite the drop in violence in these provinces, Pakistan faced 512 terror incidents in 2022, marking the first time since 2017 that the country has recorded more than 300 militant attacks. four sectarian terrorist Acts were also reported in 2022, resulting in 72 deaths and 213 injuries compared to just two such incidents in 2021.
Most of the attacks were carried out by TTP, ISKP and BLA. These banned groups have been plotting, planning, and operating cross-border terrorist activities with greater freedom in Afghanistan, where they enjoy sanctuaries along with facilitation.
Terrorism trends over the two years indicate that terrorist activity will continue to target security forces, particularly the military and police. KP and Balochistan would continue to be targeted by banned terrorist groups, which may become an imminent threat to Pakistan’s major metropolitan cities.
To combat this threat, Pakistan must review its Afghan policy and engage the Afghan Taliban in a bilateral dialogue on the issue of the TTP, the fight against terrorism, joint management of border security, and refugees. Pakistan should formulate a policy to develop a bilateral understanding with Kabul on a joint border control and coordination mechanism.
In the country, there is a need to improve the capacity building of law enforcement agencies to prevent potential terrorist threats. The National Policy Against Violent Extremism (NCVE) has been passed by the government with the aim of preventing radicalization among the people. There is a need to translate the NCVE into implementable and measurable targets to stop extremism in Pakistan. Likewise, the implementation of the PAN must be ensured and reviewed. The NAP can be successful if all the measures are effectively adopted by all stakeholders in transparency and accountability.
The decision made during the Apex Central Committee meeting, which calls for the establishment of a Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa forensic laboratory, safe city projects and capacity building of KP law enforcement agencies, must be implemented in letter and spirit. . The police department must adopt modern crime and violence mapping techniques and data analysis to predict, prevent, and detect terrorism and crime. Visual data would help formulate strategies to prevent terrorism and crime.
