The Manipur crisis, a setback for the Act East policy

The entire North East region is considered a key gateway to East and South East Asia and is therefore a vital component of the ‘Act East Policy’. Any instability there does not bode well for India’s long-term strategic interests.

India’s ambitious plans for physical connectivity with Southeast Asia and beyond could be derailed by the violent ethnic conflict that has engulfed Manipur in northeast India. In fact, the entire North East region is seen as a crucial gateway to East and South East Asia and is therefore a vital component of the ‘Policy Act East’. Any instability there does not bode well for India’s long-term strategic interests. Prolonged turmoil in the region could well hamper India’s concerted efforts to forge deeper ties and economic integration with eastern countries.

East India Policy Act

Manipur has been on the brink for over three months with hundreds dead and thousands displaced afterwards violence erupted in the state on May 3. The state has a long and porous border with Myanmar, the only ASEAN country with which India shares a land and sea border. The north-east lies at the heart of India’s ‘Act East’ policy, a nomenclature that replaced the earlier ‘Look East’ policy in 2014, placing the 10-member ASEAN bloc at the center of this vision. The new coining reflected the proactive approach New Delhi sought to take nearly a decade ago to engage with countries in Southeast Asia and beyond. Combining ‘Act East’ with his ‘Neighborhood First’ mantraNew Delhi looks forward to building strong partnerships with countries on its immediate periphery and even beyond.

India has a comprehensive strategic partnership with this regional grouping and views it as the core of its ‘Policy Act East’. Hoping to reap the benefits of connectivity, New Delhi sees it as an “Arch of Prosperity” for India and ASEAN member states. ASEAN is also central to India’s vision of the Indo-Pacific, which has gained enormous importance for New Delhi in recent years as it seeks to counter an increasingly belligerent China. Some of the other regional groupings through which India has been pushing for closer ties and connectivity under the rubric of ‘Act East’ are the seven-member BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sector Economic and Technical Cooperation). members, the Mekong Ganga Cooperation (MGC) and the Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD).

Connectivity with Southeast Asia would give the landlocked Northeast alternative access and thus unlock its economic potential, bringing benefits to the region and countries beyond. But India’s push for seamless land connectivity that allows for the cross-border movement of goods and people has been hampered by difficult terrain, insurgencies, ethnic divisions and a generally underdeveloped northeast region over the years. The Manipur conflict has now further aggravated the problem.

Union Minister of State for External Affairs Rajkumar Ranjan Singh told Parliament last year that the Act East policy, “originally conceived as an economic initiative, has taken on political, strategic and cultural dimensions.” With ASEAN at its core, India is strongly engaging with countries in Southeast Asia, East Asia, South Asia and Oceania, he said. But today, there is a virtual civil war in Singh’s home state of Manipur, in which even his own house in Imphal has been burned down in the violence. The Kuki-Meitei ethnic clashes have also had consequences in the neighboring state of Mizoram. Overall, the situation looks extremely grim, not just for Manipur but for the entire northeast, already plagued by a fragile security situation due to various insurgencies over the decades.

Connectivity projects in danger

The instability in Myanmar, with which four northeastern states (Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh) share a border, has not helped either. And now, with Manipur at the vortex of turmoil, the progress of connectivity projects could slow down even further. Because, in the absence of stability, how do you execute connectivity projects or even ensure smooth movement through existing routes?

He crucial land port of Moreh in Manipur, located on the Indo-Myanmar border and until now considered the only feasible land route between the two countries, has already been battered by ongoing violence. Located barely 4 km from the Myanmar border town of Tamu, it has historically served as an important cross-border trade point. The border crossing has remained closed for trade and entry of Myanmar citizens since early 2021, ostensibly to control the spread of Covid19, but in reality, to control the influx of Chin refugees who have started entering India in large numbers. after the seizure of power by the military junta in Burma. The situation is further complicated by Manipur’s Meiteis and Nagas who allege that the Kukis are helping Chin refugees to settle in Manipur and fear that this may change the demographics of the state and be detrimental to their interests.

Another regional connectivity project that could be affected is the 1,400 km long trilateral highway project to link Moreh with Myanmar and with Mae Sot in Thailand. Already stalled due to the situation in Myanmar, this project has been plagued with difficulties and slow progress. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar acknowledged that the work on the trilateral highway project has been challenging due to the law and order situation in Myanmar. Although 70 percent of the job now completed on the project, this crucial connectivity may now not be operational even by 2025, the latest target set for completion. The ethnic violence that has engulfed Manipur and threatens the peace and stability of the larger North East will have a debilitating impact on India’s infrastructure building efforts for connectivity and its push for ‘Act East’ if peace and stability are not they return soon to the region.

Parul Chandra is a senior journalist based in New Delhi who writes on foreign affairs. Twitter: @ParulChandraP. Opinions are personal and do not represent endorsement of this publication.