Three swing states go from leaning GOP to “toss up”: Cook Political Report

In a sign of Democrats’ new momentum, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report reclassified three key swing states from “leaning Republican” to “toss up” in its latest analysis of the 2024 presidential race.

Why it matters: Vice President Kamala Harris is facing a time crunch to close the gap with former President Trump in battleground states that Democrats had been projected to lose when President Biden was the nominee.

• These new electoral college ratings follow recent CBS polling that shows Trump and Harris are tied across collective battleground states as the Democratic ticket continues to eat away at Trump’s lead over a pre-bow-out Biden.

Driving the news: The Cook Political Report announced changes to its electoral college ratings Thursday, reclassifying Arizona, Nevada and Georgia as toss-up states.

• Biden won each by a narrow margin in 2020.
• CPR had moved Arizona, Georgia and Nevada from “toss up” to “lean Republican” last month as Biden resisted calls from his own party to exit the the race.

What they’re saying: Three weeks ago, CPR’s Amy Walter wrote, Trump led Biden in Cook’s national vote tracker by around 2.5%. Now, by their measure, Harris is leading Trump by “less than one point.”

• “Battleground state polls are showing similar results, with Harris cutting into Trump’s lead by anywhere from two to five points,” Walter said.
• “Things look a lot better for Democrats today than they did a few weeks ago, but Trump is looking stronger now than he did in 2020,” Walter said. “This is a Toss Up.”

The big picture: Pennsylvania is considered the most hotly contested state, as both campaigns are on track to spend more than double on advertising there compared to any of the other swing states, according to Axios’ analysis of AdImpact data.

• The Keystone State and its 19 electoral votes are also classified as a “toss up” per Cook’s current ratings, along with Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
• North Carolina remains classified as leaning Republican, per CPR.

Go deeper: Kamala Harris’ new challenge: translating momentum into votes