To save himself, Netanyahu might agree to keep rotation agreement

Dec 11, 2020

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s priorities over the past year have been clear: Squeezing the final drops from the succulent orange named President Donald Trump, fighting the health and economic crises induced by the coronavirus pandemic and cheating Defense Minister Benny Gantz out of the power-sharing deal he promised him. He continues to tar every rival with the “leftist” label that he had made synonymous with treason, even when the rivals’ political convictions are farther to the right than his own, as is the case with Yamina party Chair Naftali Bennett, Yisrael Beitenu Chairman Avigdor Liberman and former Likud stalwart Gideon Saar.

This list of priorities, however, is misleading. Netanyahu does not care deeply about any of them. He only cares about one coveted target, unique and glaring, ominously blipping on his radar — how to make his criminal indictment on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust go away. He is fully mobilized, 24/7, hatching plots and planning escape routes from the long arm of the law, and specifically from his trial that will reach its dramatic witness testimony and evidence stage in February 2021. There is absolutely nothing Netanyahu will not do to avoid this fiasco. Nothing at all.

However, the prime minister’s machinations were dealt a deadly knockout this week when Netanyahu’s former confidant Saar announced that he was quitting the Likud and forming a new right-wing party, a liberal, dignified alternative to the Likud in the spirit of its late founder and prime minister, Menachem Begin. Two refugees from Gantz’s Blue and White party — Knesset members Zvi Hauser and Yoaz Hendel — have joined him. Three Likud lawmakers — Yifat Shasha-Biton, Sharren Haskel and Michal Shir — are also expected to cross the lines. Polls conducted on the day after Saar’s shocking announcement gave the party the equivalent of 15-18 Knesset seats — before it even had an official name.

Saar has made it clear he plans to replace Netanyahu. If he recruits the hottest name in the political betting pools these days — former army Chief Lt. Gen. Gazi Eizenkot — he stands a chance. Even without Eizenkot and with only half the seats envisioned by the polls, one thing is obvious. There is no way Saar or anyone else from his party would vote in favor of what is known as the “French Law,” which protects incumbent prime ministers from criminal prosecution, or for any of the legal loopholes that Netanyahu has examined to avoid trial.

Not only that. Despite his declared right-wing ideology, Saar is committed to the rule of law. Unlike his mentor Netanyahu, he would try to fire the attorney general or appoint a puppet to the top law enforcement job. He is here to protect the rule of law, among his other goals. Since both Bennett and his Yamina partner former Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked are also on record as opposing legislation giving Netanyahu a free pass, the goal to which the prime minister is striving with all his might seems to be slipping away from him.

To obtain a 61-seat majority of legislators willing to set aside their principles and subvert the rule of law to save Netanyahu, the prime minister has been conducting an unbelievable love affair in recent months with the small Islamist Ra’am party. The leader of the four-member Knesset faction, Mansour Abbas, has declared several times much to everyone’s amazement that he would support Netanyahu whenever he is asked to do so — if his constituents receive benefits, budgets and rights. With Saar’s bombshell, and based on mathematical probabilities, Netanyahu’s alliance with Abbas has become superfluous. His chances of garnering a 61-seat majority are purely theoretical. Abbas seems to have bet on the wrong horse.

Saar’s move took Netanyahu by complete surprise. He has been abusing Saar for a long time, refusing to include him in his government despite his popularity in the Likud. His son Yair Netanyahu calls him names at every opportunity and spreads ludicrous conspiracy theories about him. Nonetheless, the prime minister did not imagine that this born and bred Likud veteran would get up and leave.

Netanyahu tried to rain on his parade twice this week: The morning after Saar’s primetime announcement, he rushed off to Ben-Gurion Airport to welcome the first batch of Pfizer coronavirus vaccines to Israel. Dwarfed by the massive cargo plane, he posed for a selfie in front of the vaccination freezers in a bid to freeze Saar out of the frame. The next day, Dec. 10, US President Donald Trump announced that a fourth Muslim state, Morocco, would normalize ties with Israel. A sizeable Likud constituency is of Moroccan Jewish origin, and its enthusiastic reception of the news is helping Netanyahu douse some of the flames Saar ignited within the party. He knows, however, that the celebrations will die down. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis have already visited Morocco, with which Israel has enjoyed an active relationship over the past two decades, despite the absence of formal recognition and diplomatic ties. Netanyahu will need more than that to defuse the Saar time bomb.

Netanyahu faces a harsh dilemma and a crucial decision in the next 10 days. By law, unless he submits the budget to a Knesset vote and the budget is adopted by Dec. 23, the legislature is disbanded and elections ensue three months hence, meaning March 23, 2021. As of now, these elections will not advance Netanyahu toward his coveted goal. In fact, the opposite may be true. Given Saar’s goal of removing Netanyahu from political life altogether, his voters could even withhold from Netanyahu the support he needs to form the next government. That said, Netanyahu’s best chance — meaning the lesser evil — is to stick to his marriage of inconvenience with Gantz in the unity government, rather than dismantle the partnership. This would leave him in office for almost another year, until he hands power to Gantz, after which he would still enjoy an 18-month term as alternative prime minister, with all the attendant perks.

To reach a compromise with Gantz, Netanyahu will have to adjust to the nightmarish rotation idea that he has done everything possible to banish. Netanyahu is likely to propose an extension of the current government’s term from three to four years, giving him an additional six months in office after which he would switch with Gantz for two years. This might make the idea somewhat palatable. Will Netanyahu indeed conclude that he is better off with the bird he has in hand than with a risky adventure? Would Gantz, whose party is crashing in the polls, go along with such a deal? Neither Netanyahu nor Gantz need elections right now. Saar, who meant to unseat Netanyahu, may actually end up crowning Gantz, making him the luckiest man to ever take the plunge into Israeli politics. Then again, maybe not. We will know by Dec. 23.