Top review says COVID lockdowns and masks worked, period

The rapid implementation of a combination of measures such as face masks, lockdowns and international border controls “unequivocally” reduced COVID-19 infections, a major study has shown.

He report published on Thursday by the Royal Society analyzed the findings of six evidence reviews that looked at thousands of studies to assess the effect of masks, social distancing and lockdowns, testing tracking and isolation systems, border controls, environmental controls and communications. It found evidence that each of these measures, which are called ‘non-pharmaceutical interventions’, were effective, albeit to varying degrees, when looked at individually. However, the evidence in favor of the use of these tools was stronger when countries combined several measures.

The report could have significant implications for decision-making on future outbreaks, and Mark Walport, chair of the report’s expert working group and Royal Society Foreign Secretary, said “having protocols up front is really important.” What policy makers should take away from the research, he said, is that “there is evidence that non-pharmaceutical interventions are effective, but … they should be applied as packages and they should be applied as soon as possible.”

The most effective measure, according to the study, was one of the most controversial: restrictions on movement and social interactions through lockdowns, distancing and rules regarding the size of gatherings. These measures were repeatedly found to be associated with a “significant reduction” in virus transmission, and the stricter the measure, the greater the effect.

In the case of masks, 75 studies were evaluated and 63 of them found positive effects. unlike january Cochrane review, which only analyzed randomized controlled trials, this review also included observational studies. The Cochrane review could not find conclusive evidence that masks help stop respiratory viruses.

Chris Dye, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Oxford who led the review on masks for the Royal Society, said that if they had only looked at randomized controlled trials they would have come to the same conclusion as the Cochrane review. But the researchers behind the paper published Thursday chose to look at a broader set of studies and found strong evidence that masks work.

A key finding from the research was that these types of measures were most effective when implemented early on. Dye said that while there is a 100 day mission To develop drugs, therapies, vaccines and diagnostics for a future pandemic, “it would be wonderful” if there was a 100-day vision for non-pharmaceutical interventions. He said this would mean that countries could “put in place the necessary mechanisms for preparedness, which would be to implement (non-pharmaceutical interventions) when some unknown new pathogen appears.”

While a future pandemic could be transmitted sexually or gastrointestinally, Salim Abdool Karim, a member of the report’s task force and vice provost for research at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, said the biggest concern was a respiratory virus. “The lessons of SARS-CoV-2 need to figure into our thinking as we prepare for a next pandemic that would be a respiratory virus to which we have had no prior exposure and therefore no pre-existing immunity. The lessons of this report will figure prominently in anyone’s deliberations,” he stated.

However, in response to the report, Kevin McConway, emeritus professor of applied statistics at the Open University, cautioned that the impact on virus transmission is not the only factor that should be taken into account when deciding to use these types of measures. . “The report makes explicit that NPIs can impose a large number of costs and burdens, in terms of social and economic impacts, and even increased ill-health…but makes it very explicit that this paper will not consider any of those. “I think that pretty much limits its effectiveness in helping make decisions about what to do in the next pandemic, whenever it comes.”