London: There seemed no chance of a happy outcome when Donald Trump arrived at a security summit with European leaders in the Turkish capital, Ankara, a few days ago.
And the awkward gathering for a “family photo” at the NATO summit only reminded everyone of the tensions between the US president and most of the other leaders on the podium.
But something startling happened by the time Trump was ready to fly home. There was a rare outbreak of unity and a significant decision on how to defend Ukraine. The summit ended with something that looks like success.
Yes, the American president griped about the Europeans whenever he had the chance. He walked past Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni without a glance at the group photo. He complained again that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer would not back the war on Iran. He reminded everyone that he still wanted control of Greenland.
The complaints evaporated at the very end of Trump’s closing press conference on Wednesday in Ankara, or about 3am on Thursday, AEST.
“I can only say that if there’s one word that comes out of today, it’s unification,” he said of the conclusion of the summit.
“I’ve never seen anything like it. They love us. They love each other. That was tremendous unification.”
As usual, deeds matter more than words where Trump is concerned. In this case, his flowery language matched at least some of the outcomes.
First, he acted on one of the most urgent challenges facing Ukraine and Europe: the missile shortage. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is in desperate need of Patriot interceptors to shoot down Russian missiles that are killing and maiming civilians in Kyiv and other cities. But there are not enough missile defence systems to be found.
“We’ll give them the right to make Patriots,” Trump said to the media while sitting with Zelensky at the summit.
“We’ll show them how to do it. I think they can produce them pretty quickly.”
This was badly needed action to fix a problem that was partly of Trump’s own making. His war on Iran has severely eroded America’s missile arsenal at a cost of billions of dollars. He is asking Congress to approve a $US1.5 trillion ($2.2 trillion) spending plan for defence, partly to restock this firepower.
Some European allies are being forced to wait for more Patriot interceptors for their missile defence systems. The manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, cannot make them fast enough in America. The solution is to license the technology, so Ukraine can make them itself.
Trump made the problem worse with his war. He just did something to fix it.
The second surprise was also promising, if not as practical. The communiqué at the end of the summit confirmed the fundamental feature of the NATO pact – the Article 5 provision that an attack on one member is seen as an attack on all. The leaders said this was an “ironclad commitment” and highlighted the threat from Russia.
Promises are cheap when Trump is at a summit, of course. When he threatened a trade war with Europe over his claims to Greenland earlier this year, for instance, he highlighted the doubts about whether he would really honour Article 5 in the event of an attack.
Those doubts will never fade away, given the constant risk of a new argument with Trump, but the communiqué was a net gain for one of the world’s most vital security pacts.
A third twist was the positive tone of Trump’s meeting with Zelensky on Wednesday, about 18 months after their infamous clash in the White House. “You have no cards,” Trump told the Ukrainian leader in February last year. In Ankara, he talked about their unity. “There was a lot of love in that room,” he said of their meeting.
Zelensky even ventured a joke when Trump asked him if he was willing to travel to Moscow for peace talks. “It’s difficult,” Zelensky replied. “There are a lot of Ukrainian drones there.”
The more serious outcome was a €70 billion ($115 billion) support package for Ukraine from most NATO allies, which will help buy military equipment from the US and other suppliers. Trump did not contribute to this package, despite his friendly tone with Zelensky. This was another reminder that Europe is paying more for its own defence.
Europe’s new defence era
One other outcome stood out at the summit. The UK and 11 other countries agreed to spend £37 billion ($71.5 billion) over a decade to develop a new long-range missile they are calling the Deep Precision Strike project. With Russia seen as a growing threat and missile stocks running low, they have to build up their own defence manufacturing.
Australian security depends, in part, on the results at NATO. Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy was in Ankara and spoke with his NATO counterparts. He attended a defence industry forum with a heavy emphasis on missile production.
Australia has been working with the US on a Precision Strike Missile (or PrSM, pronounced “prism”) that can be launched from the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HiMARS) launch vehicles Australia has acquired (and which are also in use in Ukraine).
The missiles are being designed to reach 500 kilometres, but the range might be doubled over time. On Tuesday, ahead of NATO, the UK confirmed it would join the PrSM project with Australia and the US.
Just as Europe is expanding its defence production, Australia aims to manufacture its own long-range PrSMs over time, subject to need and value for money.
A smaller precision missile is already being made in Australian factories under an agreement with US company Lockheed Martin. The Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System, or GMLRS, is designed for precision strikes and is also fired from HiMARS launchers.
The first Australian-made GMLRS were fired at the South Australian missile range at Woomera in April.
“Our demand is about 300 rounds a year, but we’re building a factory that has capacity to produce 4000 rounds a year,” Conroy told this masthead from Ankara.
“We can obviously ramp up if we need more rounds, but we can also supply allies and like-minded countries.”
With luck, these weapons will never need to be fired against an enemy. But the pressing need for missile defence was a key theme at NATO. And the implications reach Australia.
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David Crowe is Europe correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.Connect via X or email.From our partners
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