UK coronavirus live: Boris Johnson set to face Keir Starmer at PMQs after Labour leader calls for ‘circuit break’

Geoff Driver, the Conservative leader of Lancashire county council, told the BBC that he thought it was “inevitable” that his county would go into the tier 3 most serious alert level, meaning the strictest restrictions would apply. He said:

With the high rates of infection in most parts of the county area it’s inevitable we’re going to move into tier 3.

It’s really a question of when and how, and we’re working with government trying to put together a package of measures that will mitigate the inevitable impact on that particular sector of the economy.

In an interview on the Today programme this morning Prof Matt Keeling, one of the Sage academics who wrote the new paper saying a short lockdown could save lives (see 9.06am), explained what a “circuit breaker” of this kind might achieve. He said:

What we’ve got at the moment is a situation where most areas of the country are facing an exponential rise in cases, and what a circuit-breaker or precautionary break would do is drive down R for that short two-week period.

It would effectively bide us more time to put other controls in place.

One of the ways of thinking about this is it kind of takes us back in time to when cases where lower, and therefore gives us opportunities to do other things, it reduces the number of cases as well as leading to a similar decline in hospitalisations and also deaths over a short period.

Asked about the numbers of lives that could be saved as a result of a circuit breaker, he said:

We looked at a range of different scenarios, from a relatively low growth rate going forward where we might sort of reduce deaths by a third between now and new year, to some extreme scenarios, which I think are the ones that have been quoted in the papers, which really were if we don’t do anything between now and the new year.

When it was put to him that a short lockdown “simply postpones” deaths, Keeling said he “completely” agreed with that but added:

We stress that this is only a short-term measure – it buys us time to put other measures in place, but at the moment we do need that time.

Mark Drakeford, the Welsh first minister, told Sky News this morning that his government was “very actively talking about and preparing for” a circuit breaker lockdown in Wales. He said “detailed planning” was under way to establish what measures would be put in place during a circuit breaker, how long it would last for, how schools would be treated and how to come out of it. He said:

We want to act now in order to prevent the worst from happening, to give us a better chance of getting through the rest of the autumn and the winter, and if a circuit breaker is the right way to do it then that is what we will do …

I’m not announcing it today but I do want people to know we are planning very seriously, so if we do need to do it we’ll be in a position to do it and in a position to do it quickly.

Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, and the leaders of all 10 councils in the region, have released a joint statement saying they are opposed to any move by the government to place them under tier 3 restrictions, the very high alert ones that are currently only in force in Merseyside. They say:

We do not believe we should be put into tier 3 for two reasons.

First, the evidence does not currently support it. The rate of Covid infection in Greater Manchester is much lower, at 357.6 cases per 100,000, compared to Liverpool city region which is in Tier 3 at 488.0 cases per 100,000. Plus our hospital admission rate is much lower than in LCR [Liverpool city region] as deputy CMO, Jonathan Van Tam, highlighted in his press conference this week. Liverpool University hospitals NHS foundation trust 7-day rolling average Covid patients in beds is at around the 225 mark and in Manchester University NHS foundation trust it’s at the 100 mark.

Second, the financial package accompanying tier 3 is nowhere near sufficient to prevent severe hardship, widespread job losses and business failure.

In the statement, which is relatively long and detailed, the leaders say they “reject the government’s current drive to pile pressure on places to enter tier 3”. They also say they fear the government’s current strategy could leave “large parts of the north of England trapped in tier 3 for much of the winter”.

They say that at the weekend they presented the government with an alternative strategy, involving Greater Manchester being in tier 2 for no more than four weeks, combined with councils getting new powers to enforce Covid safety, test and trace being localised, and the 10pm closing time rule being revised. But the government has not provided a substantive response, they say.

And they also say that, as an alternative to the government’s current approach, some of them would rather see a short, national lockdown. They say:

If cases continue to rise as predicted, and the government continues to refuse to provide the substantial economic support that tier 3 areas will need, then a number of leaders in Greater Manchester believe a national circuit break, with the required financial support would be a preferable option. This would create the conditions for a re-set of the test and trace service into a more locally-controlled operation which, with cases driven down to a lower level, would be more likely to succeed.

The statement is signed by Burnham, his deputy Bev Hughes, and the leaders of Manchester, Rochdale, Salford, Oldham, Bolton, Wigan, Bury, Tameside, Trafford and Stockport councils. They are all Labour politicians except Bolton’s leader, David Greenhalgh, who is a Conservative.

In the Northern Ireland assembly Arlene Foster, the first minister, has just said that the executive will be finding ways of helping businesses forced to close by the new rules.

Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the Commons Speaker, has said he would like to see the Commons return to operating on a largely virtual basis, as it did during the lockdown in the spring. In an interview with Times Radio, he said it was up to the house to decide whether to move back to an almost virtual parliament. But asked what he would do if it was his decision, he said: “I would say let’s look at it straight away and let’s start to move to a new place.”

He also urged MPs to take care of their health, and warned that they could become “super-spreaders”. He said:

What we have got to watch out [is that] MPs could easily become super-spreaders because they come from all parts of the country … Whatever happens, people’s lives matter most, their health comes first and people with certain medical conditions, people of a certain age – I’m saying you’ve got to look after yourself.

My advice – and it’s advice not instructions – is to say put yourself first, look after yourself and make sure you are here for the long-term … do not put yourself at risk – that’s either travelling or coming into this building.

And these are from Times Radio’s Tom Newton Dunn.

Keith Buchanan, a DUP member of the assembly, asks what consideration was given to the impact of the measures on young people.

Foster says the executive took into account the impact of school closures from March. And it considered the impact on special needs pupils. She says that is why they decided to close schools for just a few extra days.

Colin McGrath, an SDLP member of the assembly, asks what financial help will be available for people.

Foster says the restrictions are coming into force on Friday, so people have time to plan.

Schools were going to be off for a week anyway, she says.

She stresses that this is just a time-limited intervention. It will last four weeks.

And support will be put in place, she says.

She says last night the executive discussed the measures. Tomorrow it will discuss support measures. She hopes there will be agreement.

She urges assembly members not to make “trite political points”.

Foster says the rules will come into force on Friday.

They will last for four week, but any decision to exit from them must be taken carefully. A decision will need to be taken by the executive, she says.

Arlene Foster says the executive has looked at the new restrictions needed.

She says the doubling rate continues to rise. More measures are needed.

The current restrictions will continue she says relating to meetings allowed in people’s homes and gardens.

Bubbling will be limited to 10 people. There will be no overnight stays unless people are in a bubble.

Universities will be encouraged to use distance learning whenever possible.

Pubs and other premises in the hospitality sector will be closed apart from takeaways, with closing time at 11pm.

There will be no indoor sport, apart from at elite level.

Gyms will remain open. And so will places of worship, subject to people wearing masks.

Weddings will be limited to 25 people from 19 October.

Funerals will be limited to 25 people too.

People will be advised not to travel unless it is necessary.

The rules will be in place for four weeks.

The school half-term will be extended, so that it runs from 19 to 30 October. And pupils will return on 2 November.