Covid infection levels are showing signs of a substantial uptick in Scotland, likely driven by the variant of concern first detected in India, new data reveals.
According to data published on Friday from the Office for National Statistics, which conducts a survey based on swabs from randomly selected households,an estimated 8,300 people in Scotland are thought to have had Covid in the week ending 22 May, equating to around 1 in 630 people.
The team warn that the small number of tests and a low number of positives mean there is uncertainty about the figure, giving a likely range of between 1 in 1,180 and 1 in 380 people having had Covid in the week ending 22 May.
However this marked shift compared with the week before when around around 1 in 1,960 people were thought to have had Covid in Scotland, with the likely range from 1 in 5,160 to 1 in 1,010 people.
The data came as government figures for cases of Covid in Scotland reached levels not seen since the end of March, with 546 new cases reported on Wednesday and 464 on Thursday.
Hospitalisations have also been rising – although far less dramatically than would have been expected before the vaccination programme began – with 98 patients in hospital with Covid on 26 May, up from 58 on 6 May.
While the estimates of infection levels appear fairly steady in England – an estimated 1 in 1,120 people in the community were estimated to have had Covid in the week ending 22 May compared with 1 in 1,110 in the week before – experts say there are still signs of a rise over the past two weeks.
Crucially, because the ONS data is based on a survey of randomly selected households across the country, it may not pick up a rise in cases linked to outbreaks located in hotspots.
The ONS suggests the upticks in the latest data could be linked to outbreaks of the variant of concern first detected in India, B.1.617.2. Glasgow is one of the areas in Scotland that has been hard-hit by this variant, although the first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has said the number of new cases is now falling in some parts of the city that were affected.
Sarah Crofts, head of analytical outputs for the Covid-19 Infection Survey, said the team would continue to closely monitor infection rates as restrictions ease.
“Today’s figures show that while infections remain low across the UK at around 4% of the levels seen at the start of the year, there are signs of recent increases in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland,†she said. “We have seen a rise in cases that are not compatible with the UK variant, suggesting that we may be seeing the first signs of variant B.1.617.2 in our data.â€
