UK Labor opposition on course for landslide election victory, poll predicts

LONDON (Reuters) – Britain’s opposition Labor Party is on course for a landslide victory in national elections scheduled for next year, according to an opinion poll published on Saturday.

Most polls place the Labor Party, which gather in northern England this weekend for their annual conference, about 20 points ahead of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s governing Conservatives, although commentators say the lead is potentially fragile.

The Survation poll, conducted for campaign group 38 Degrees and published by the Observer newspaper, surveyed more than 11,000 voters between September 11 and 25 and then used modeling to generate results on a district-by-ward basis.

Their central projection was that Labor would win 420 seats, the Conservatives 149 seats and the Liberal Democrats 23, leaving Labour, who have been out of power since 2010, with a 190-seat majority in parliament’s Lower House of Commons. .

He predicted a range of 402 to 437 seats for Labor and 132 to 169 seats for the Conservatives. In the last national election in 2019, the Conservatives won 365 seats and Labor 203.

Survation used models known as multilevel regression poststratification (MRP) to reach conclusions at the constituency level. Pollsters using this method successfully predicted the outcome of the 2017 UK election.

The Observer said that under the projected results, 12 of Sunak’s cabinet ministers, including Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden and Defense Secretary Grant Shapps, were at risk of losing their seats.

The vote, which took place before the conservatives’ meeting annual conference This week, it found that across all constituencies, the cost of living crisis and the state of the NHS were the two most important issues for voters.

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