UK PM Sunak avoids removal in key local elections

LONDON, July 21 (Reuters) – British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s governing Conservatives lost two strategically important parliamentary seats on Friday but unexpectedly kept Boris Johnson’s old constituency in a setback for the opposition Labor Party.

The by-election was one of the last electoral tests before national elections scheduled for next year and was seen as an indicator of the prospects of the two main parties at a time when voters are battling high inflation, strikes and rising mortgage rates.

Sunak might be somewhat relieved as his party narrowly avoided losing all three seats. But the problems he faces were highlighted by the loss of Selby and Ainsty’s previously secure Conservative parliamentary seat, where Labor ousted the largest Conservative majority in a by-election since World War Two.

Labor leader Keir Starmer said the victory showed “how powerful the demand for change is.”

The Conservatives suffered a crushing defeat in another vote, but retained Johnson’s old Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat by less than 500 votes to ensure Sunak avoided becoming the first British leader to lose three by-elections in a single day in more than half a century.

Sunak, a former finance minister and investment banker, has tried to use his technocratic leadership to restore credibility to the Tories after a series of scandals last year forced Johnson to resign, and economic turmoil led his successor, Liz Truss, to resign after just six weeks.

It is expected that he will soon reshuffle his chief ministers to choose his team to fight in the upcoming general elections.

With stubbornly high inflation, economic stagnation, rising mortgage rates, industrial unrest and long wait times to use the state health service, the Conservatives had braced themselves for the possibility of losing all three seats.

Sunak’s Conservatives trail Labor by 20 points in national opinion polls, suggesting the ruling party will struggle to win a fifth consecutive general election.

But Labor’s defeat at Uxbridge shows that its lead in the polls may not translate into a clear parliamentary majority at the next general election.

John Curtice, Britain’s best-known pollster, said that based on Labor’s performance in Uxbridge, the most likely outcome in the next general election was a parliament with no absolute majority.

“The tide is still too far out for the Conservatives and they still have a long way to go before it looks like they might have a chance to retain power after the next general election,” he told the BBC.

LABOR FRAGILITY?

The Uxbridge by-election was called after Johnson’s shock decision to leave parliament last month after he was found to have made misleading statements about parties held in Downing Street during the coronavirus pandemic. Johnson denied misleading Parliament, but Labor’s failure to win the seat came as a surprise.

Winning Conservative candidate Steve Tuckwell said his party’s victory was due to local rather than national factors, pointing to the problem that London’s Labor mayor extended the ultra-low emission zone to include suburban areas such as Uxbridge, meaning some voters had to pay more for their cars.

The other results exposed the Tories’ vulnerabilities on two fronts: the loss of the rural seat of Selby in the north of England and one in the south-west, a traditional stronghold. The Conservatives had won large majorities in both in the 2019 general election.

Labor won Selby and Ainsty in Yorkshire by 4,000 votes with the Conservatives failing to defend a majority of 20,137. The post became vacant after a Johnson ally resigned in solidarity with the former prime minister.

In Somerton and Frome, in south-west England, centrist Liberal Democrats managed to overturn a Conservative majority of 19,213 after a third member of parliament resigned over allegations of sexual harassment and cocaine use.

Curtice said Labor’s defeat in Uxbridge shows the “potential fragility” of the party’s lead in the polls, while the Conservatives continue to lose voters in southern areas.

The two main “leaders of the political parties have been left with something to think about in the wake of these results,” he said.

Reporting by Andrew MacAskill; Edited by Elizabeth Piper, Tom Hogue, Robert Birsel, and Simon Cameron-Moore

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