KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukrainian military forces have successfully established positions on the east side of the Dnieper river, according to a new analysis, sparking speculation Sunday that the advances could be an early sign of Kiev’s advance. long-awaited spring counteroffensive.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, reported late Saturday that geolocated images from pro-Kremlin military bloggers indicated that Ukrainian troops had established a foothold near the town of Oleshky. , along with “stable supply lines” to their positions.
Analysts widely believe that if Ukraine goes ahead with a spring counteroffensive, a major goal would be to breach the land corridor between Russia and the annexed Crimean peninsula, which would require crossing the Dnieper river in the south of the country.
In response to Ukrainian media reports that the establishment of such positions indicated that the counteroffensive had begun, Natalia Humeniuk, the spokeswoman for the Ukrainian Operational Command South, called for patience.
While neither confirming nor denying the ISW report, it only said that details of the military operations in the Dnieper Delta could not be disclosed for security and operational reasons.
Speaking on Ukrainian television, Humeniuk added that it was a “very difficult job” when “it is necessary to overcome an obstacle like the Dnieper, when the front line passes through a wide and powerful river.”
The Kremlin-installed head of the Kherson region, one of four parts of Ukraine that Russia said it was illegally annexing in September, denied on Sunday that Ukrainian forces had established a foothold on the eastern bank of the Dnieper.
In a Telegram update, Vladimir Saldo said that Russian forces are in “full control” of the area, and speculated that the footage referred to by ISW may have depicted Ukrainian sabotage units “managing to take a selfie” across the Dnieper. before being forced. back.
After more than a year since the russian invasionrecent fighting has turned into a war of attrition, with neither side able to gain momentum.
But Ukraine has recently received sophisticated weapons of their western alliesand newly trained troops in the West, leading to growing anticipation of a counteroffensive.
The fiercest battles have been in the eastern Donetsk region, where Russia is fighting to encircle the city of Bakhmut in the face of stubborn Ukrainian defense.
On Sunday, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov claimed that Moscow forces had captured two more neighborhoods in the western part of Bakhmut, without providing further details or clarifying which areas were still held by Ukraine.
In the south, the Dnieper has for months marked the line of contact in the Kherson region, where the capital of the same name is regularly hit by shelling from Russian forces stationed across the river.
In addition to having established a foothold near the town of Oleshky, across the Dnieper delta from Kherson, ISW said Ukrainian troops were also closing in on the nearby village of Dachi, citing data from Russian military bloggers.
In Telegram posts on Thursday and Saturday, ISW said bloggers claimed Ukrainian forces had held these positions for weeks and established stable supply lines to them, indicating a lack of Russian control over the area.
The Associated Press confirmed the bloggers’ posts but could not immediately independently verify the data they shared.
Russia is also expected launch more intense attacks in the spring, but ISW reported that top Russian defense figures are showing signs they may be pushing for a consolidation of existing gains in Ukraine, rather than expensive new operations, as Moscow struggles with both materiel and supply. labour.
The think tank cited comments from financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group, a private Russian military company whose fighters have led the offensive in Bakhmut.
On Saturday, Prigozhin’s press service published comments he made on his official Telegram channel arguing that Russian forces should “anchor (themselves) in such a way that it is only possible to tear them off with (the) opponent’s claws.” ”.
The interview was published shortly after Western leaders met at the Ramstein airbase in Germany and pledged to train more Ukrainian personnel and maintain their military support for kyiv.
As Moscow seeks to increase the number of its troops, the UK Defense Ministry said in an intelligence briefing on Sunday that Russian authorities had mounted a large-scale military recruitment campaign using social media, billboards and television. state.
He said that Russian officials are “almost certainly trying to delay any new open mandatory mobilization for as long as possible to minimize internal dissent,” while assessing that this latest effort will likely fall short of the Defense Ministry’s stated goal of recruit 400,000 new volunteers.
In strikes overnight, local authorities in eastern Ukraine reported that Russian forces had launched at least five S-300 missiles at Kharkiv, the country’s second-largest city, and the surrounding region.
The missiles damaged an industrial facility and private homes but caused no casualties, according to Oleh Syniehubov, the Kharkiv regional governor.
In Kherson, one civilian was killed and two wounded as Russian troops used artillery, drones and fighter jets to launch a total of 54 strikes in the province, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin said on Telegram on Sunday morning.
Russian forces on Saturday and overnight also dropped five guided aerial bombs on the Kherson region, Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command said in a Facebook post on Sunday. According to the publication, the bombs were dropped from drones and planes and damaged multiple residential buildings, but caused no casualties.
Also in the Kherson region, two women, aged 85 and 57, were hospitalized after being injured in a Russian artillery attack that damaged a local school and about 25 residential buildings in the village of Kizomys, Prokudin said in a Telegram post. .
In the neighboring region of Zaporizhzhia, Russian shelling injured a 56-year-old man in Stepnohirsk, a city on the banks of the Dnieper river, local governor Yurii Malashko wrote on Telegram. ___
Joanna Kozlowska reported from London.
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This story has been corrected to show that the Kremlin-based head of the Kherson region made the comments on Telegram, not the RIA.
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