‘Uncomfortably high’: What economists say about the chance of recession.

Economists at Citigroup, led by Nathan Sheets, the global chief economist, put the odds of a global recession at 50 percent and expect the U.S. economy to slow but not shrink, although “we see recession probabilities as appreciable and rising.”

The Canadian bank’s economics team, led by Beata Caranci, the chief economist, is not expecting a U.S. recession, although “with growth close to stall speed, there is a very thin margin for error if another shock hits economies.”

After deep cuts to its forecasts, the U.S. economy is on “the edge of a recession,” according to the team led by Jeremy Schwartz, the Swiss bank’s director of U.S. economics, but there are “buffers” that should shield the economy from “spiraling into a broader downturn.”

The Federal Reserve has a “fighting chance” to tame inflation without causing a recession, writes Kathy Bostjancic, the group’s chief U.S. economist. She has cut her forecasts for growth, which come “precariously close to tipping into a recession by mid-2023,” she says.

The team at Fitch Ratings, led by Brian Coulton, the chief economist, expects that economic growth will slow to just 0.1 percent per quarter in the second through fourth quarters next year, a pace that will put the economy “perilously close to the risk of technical recession.”

Analysts at the German bank, led by Holger Schmieding, the chief economist, expect the U.S. economy to stagnate in late 2022 and shrink in the first three quarters of 2023, but only by a “relatively modest” 0.4 percent for the year. “With luck, the recession will be a shallow one,” they write.

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