Tuesday, April 23, 2024
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UP OBC vote in sight, BJP, Opp redraw battle lines after HC order on civic polls

Barely hours after the Allahabad High Court’s order that Uttar Pradesh’s urban local body (ULB) polls should be held at the earliest and that no reservation should be given to Other Backward Classes (OBCs) in these polls until the Supreme Court-stipulated “triple test” is completed by the state government, a war of words broke out between the Opposition Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the ruling BJP over the politically-crucial issue.

Slamming the BJP, the SP called it an “anti-reservation party”, alleging that the saffron party has today “snatched” the reservation right from OBCs and will “do the same with Scheduled Castes (SCs)” in future. “UP’s 60 per cent population has been deprived of reservation,” SP president Akhilesh Yadav charged in a statement, blaming the BJP for it. Akhilesh appealed to OBCs and Dalits to support the SP in the “battle” to protect their quota rights.

Senior SP leader Ramgopal Yadav targeted the Yogi Adityanath government’s OBC ministers, questioning their “silence” on the issue.

In his tweet, Ramgopal also took a dig at senior BJP leader and Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya, charging that “Maurya ki sthiti bandhua majdoor jaisi!” (Maurya’s condition is like a bonded labourer). Maurya is the key OBC face in the BJP dispensation in the state.

In her tweet in Hindi, BSP president Mayawati charged that the high court’s order “exposed” the BJP and its government’s “anti-OBC and anti-reservation mindset”. She said the UP government should have timely settled this issue by completing the “triple test” but that was not done. “OBC community will certainly punish BJP for this wrong act,” she said.

Before the Opposition’s attack, the BJP also got a signal of unease from its ally Apna Dal (Sonelal) that tweeted to say that the civic polls without the OBC reservation was not appropriate. “We are studying the high court’s order in this regard. If found necessary, Apna Dal (S) will knock on the door of the Supreme Court for the rights of OBCs,” the party tweeted in Hindi.

The BJP government immediately announced that it will form a Commission to ensure OBC reservation on the basis of the “triple test”, with CM Adityanath asserting that the ULB polls will be conducted only after providing reservation to OBCs.

Keshav Prasad Maurya, in a tweet, said that there will be no compromise with regard to the OBCs’ rights. Maurya called Akhilesh “anti-OBC” and termed his reaction a “drama”. He also said the civic polls will not be held without ensuring quota for OBCs. “Mera wada hai BJP hai, aarakshan hai aur rahega!” (I promise BJP will ensure that reservation continues).

Sources said that immediately after the court’s order, the state BJP leadership started brainstorming at its headquarters to explore measures to control any possible damage to the party’s OBC vote bank. “OBCs are biggest vote bank in UP and with its support BJP came to power in UP in the 2017 and 2022 polls and won maximum Lok Sabha seats in the state in the 2014 and 2019 general elections. After this court order, the Opposition has got an opportunity to do propaganda against the BJP by calling it anti-reservation. If they succeed it can cause a major damage to BJP nationally ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The party and the state government will certainly come out with some strategy to control the situation,” said a BJP leader.

Another BJP leader said that if elections are to be held without OBC quota, one possible option for the BJP could be to field OBC candidates in those seats where the party’s backward castes leaders were preparing to contest following the interim notification of reservation issued earlier this month. “But in that situation, if a non-OBC wins the election in any such seat, that will upset backward caste candidates and their supporters against the BJP. So it is better that the order is challenged in the Supreme Court to ensure reservation for OBCs in civic elections,” he said.

Another BJP leader said the party has always “dominated” the ULB polls, especially in municipal corporations, adding that “If local body elections get delayed for a few months to complete the triple test process, its results will have an impact on Lok Sabha polls too.”

The OBC vote has been a decisive factor in UP politics, which has been especially crucial for the BJP and SP among the larger parties. The survival of several smaller parties in the state is dependent on various OBC caste groups they represent.

After the demise of former CM Kalyan Singh, the BJP has so far not been able to find an OBC face that has acceptance across all the OBC caste groups. Former state BJP chief Keshav Prasad Maurya was also appointed the Deputy CM in the previous Adityanath government but he lost his election in 2022. “Even then he was retained as Deputy CM to send a positive message to OBCs, especially after several prominent OBC leaders left BJP and joined the SP ahead of Assembly elections,” said a party leader.

In UP, a Social Justice Committee set up in 2001 by then CM Rajnath Singh had estimated OBCs to be 43.13% of the state’s population. Among the OBCs, the Yadav community alone makes up about 19 per cent of the state’s population, which backs the SP. The BJP has tried to make a dent in the SP’s Yadav vote bank by sending the community leaders to the Rajya Sabha and the state Legislative Council but it has not had any significant success so far.

Among OBC communities are also included Kurmis, Kachhi-Kushwaha-Shakya-Maurya-Saini-Mali, Lodhs, Jats (who are OBC in UP), Kewat (Nishad), Shepherd-Pal, Kahar-Kashyap and Bhar-Rajbhar.

The BJP’s state president is a Jat leader but the party’s OBC candidate lost the Khatauli Assembly seat in Muzaffarnagar to the RLD’s OBC nominee in the bypoll held earlier this month. For the last 30 years, the BJP has worked to build a base among non-Yadav OBCs to take on the SP’s formidable Yadav-Muslim combine.

In the 2017 Assembly polls, the BJP had allied with the Apna Dal (SP) and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) to consolidate Kurmi and Rajbhar votes. In the 2022 polls, when the SBSP joined hands with the SP, the BJP tied up with the Nishad Party, which contested 10 seats and won six while the Apna Dal (S) won 12 of 17 seats it contested.

In the 2022 polls, the SP forged a rainbow coalition with the RLD and several smaller parties with bases among different OBC caste groups, which improved their prospects.



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