Update: Minor but good changes to the solar eclipse forecast for Texas

Monday April 8th’s forecast:

We are less than a week away from the total solar eclipse. Monday looked bleak for the entire state. Today both long range models show slight improvement to viewing weather.

The key to our eclipse weather are these two areas of low pressure near Alaska and Russia.

Here’s the difference from yesterday. The first low, instead of moving northeast has more of a northerly movement today. The second low is still in the same place. But that first low changes the jet stream. It almost creates a mini ridge of high pressure over Texas. I don’t want to exaggerate this too much but what this has done is brought the possibility of some gaps in the clouds Monday.

This forecast will change:

After the cool front moves through Sunday, there is a chance of rain Monday through Wednesday. Monday’s chance in Houston is lower but not zero. But at least this is going in the right direction.

A small hope:

The models we are looking at are the American and European outlooks. Yesterday, the American model had rain statewide. Now the only rain is in southeast Texas. The European now has a few gaps of sunshine compared to yesterday. The hope is this trend of drier weather and clearer skies along the path continues. I’m watching this carefully and I’ll have updates every morning and Frank and Justin will get you the forecast in the evening.

The types of clouds are important:

The worst-case scenario is from 1:00 pm to 2:00 pm April 8th we have low stratus clouds. These clouds will completely block out the sun and your total solar eclipse experience will be hopeless. It will get dark during totality, but it will be similar to what it looks like when a strong storm is getting close.

Mid-level cumulus clouds – Depending where you are seeing the eclipse totality will last from one to nearly four and a half minutes. Cumulus clouds have openings but sometimes the clouds will block the eclipse. This will be incredibly frustrating! In your mind you’ll feel the clock ticking away. When the clouds cover the sun, look away from the eclipse, and look at the clouds along the horizon. The clouds will change colors and the horizon in all directions will look like a sunset. When the clouds move away look back at the sun.

High-level cirrus clouds – While not perfectly clear, these clouds are thin enough that you’ll be able to experience totality.

What’s next:

Tomorrow’s forecast is key. Does this trend of drier weather for the path of totality continue or does it go back to looking like yesterday’s outlook.

The day three forecast late Friday is when the high resolution forecasts start to come in. These will be more accurate with the type of clouds we can expect Monday the 8th. Each model run Saturday and Sunday will show details of cloud cover in Texas as well as the rest of the country.

Let’s hope for the best.