US military mission in Niger in the crosshairs after coup

WASHINGTON, Aug 10 (Reuters) – Last month’s coup in Niger has raised questions about whether the United States can continue the 1,100-strong military presence in the country that officials and analysts say has been key in combating militants. Islamists in the Sahel region.

Over the past decade, US troops have trained Nigerien forces in counterterrorism and operated two military bases, including one that carries out drone missions against Islamic State and an al Qaeda affiliate in the region.

After removing President Mohamed Bazoum from office on July 26 and placing him under house arrestthe junta revoked military cooperation agreements with Francewhich has between 1,000 and 1,500 troops in the country.

So far, the United States has not received any requests to withdraw its troops and has no indication that it will be forced to do so, said two US officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.

But with the West African regional bloc ECOWAS threatening military intervention and Russia’s Wagner mercenary group offering aid to coup leaders – both of whom could pose security risks to US military personnel – US planners could find themselves contemplating a future without a foothold in a part of Africa facing insurgencies and where the United States competes with Russia and China for influence.

“Our drone base in Niger is extremely important for countering terrorism in the region,” one of the US officials said. “If that closed, it would be a big hit.”

FOREIGN ASSISTANCE

The Biden administration has not formally labeled the military takeover in Niger a coup, a designation that would limit the security assistance Washington can provide to the country.

Still, America last week stopped certain foreign assistance programs for Niger and said on Tuesday that it included funds for international military education and training and programs that support Niger’s counterterrorism capabilities. Military training is on hold.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken declined to comment in an interview with the BBC on Tuesday about the future presence of US troops, who are in Niger with the approval of the ousted government.

The US drone base has grown in importance due to the lack of Western security partners in the region.

Military juntas have risen to power through coups in Mali and Burkina Faso – both Niger’s neighbors – in recent years. More than 2,000 French troops left Mali last year and a 13,000-strong UN peacekeeping force is set to shut down at the end of the year after the junta abruptly asked it to leave.

The drone base, known as airbase 201, was built near Agadez in central Niger at a cost of more than $100 million. Since 2018, it has been used to attack the Islamic State and al Qaeda affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) in the Sahel.

Since the coup, US troops have largely remained at their bases and US military flights, including drones, are approved on a case-by-case basis, according to US officials.

Cameron Hudson, a former US official now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said he thinks Washington is likely to try to continue using the drone base regardless of who is in charge of Niger.

“From a political or optical perspective, it’s certainly easier to defend,” Hudson said, explaining that while the cooperation of the Nigerien authorities was needed to stay, it helps the US gather intelligence on militant targets throughout the country. the region and would not directly benefit the board

The US may have to reconsider its presence if ECOWAS members, who are due to meet on Thursday, decide to intervene militarily. The junta defied an ECOWAS deadline of August 6 to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum.

Terence McCulley, who previously served as the US ambassador to Mali, Nigeria and the Ivory Coast and now works at the US Institute of Peace, said the US military would make a “decision force protection” if a conflict broke out, adding that such an intervention was theoretical at this point and he did not expect ECOWAS to organize such an operation quickly.

WAGNER’S COMPLICATION

Another complicating factor could be any decision by Niger’s coup leaders to seek help from the Wagner Group, which the United States has designated as a transnational criminal organization. Wagner’s boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, welcomed the coup in Niger and said his forces were on hand to restore order.

Wagner’s mercenaries partnered with the Mali junta in 2021 and has some 1,000 fighters in the country, where the jihadists control large swathes of the northern and central desert.

One of the US officials said that if Wagner’s fighters show up in Niger, it would not automatically mean US forces would have to leave.

The official said a scenario in which a few dozen Wagner forces are established in the Niger capital Niamey is unlikely to affect the US military presence.

But if thousands of Wagner fighters spread across the country, even near Agadez, problems could arise due to security concerns for US personnel.

Regardless, the United States will set a very high bar for any decision to leave the country.

“The only way this mission will end is if the Nigerien government asks us to leave,” the first US official said. “It’s too important for us to abandon.”

Reporting by Idrees Ali, Daphne Psaledakis, and Simon Lewis Editing by Michelle Nichols, Don Durfee, and Deepa Babington

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