Washington has warned Russia is actively plotting an attack on Poland designed to “challenge Nato’s resolve” to defend its members.
It is said the planned operation could target Polish territory within the coming months, according to sources close to President Karol Nawrocki via Polish outlet Onet.
Moscow’s ultimate aim would be to brew up tensions within the alliance, forcing Western nations to cease military aid to Kyiv amid the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
American officials have been in contact with Poland regarding Vladimir Putin’s schemes for military action along Nato’s eastern frontier, with Polish territory included among potential targets, according to a presidential source.
Potential attack scenarios under consideration in Moscow are said to include unmanned aerial strikes against vital infrastructure such as power facilities, to mock air raids intended to trigger Polish air defence responses.
Polish intelligence sources have indicated that a “hybrid attack in the border region” would be the most extreme possibility.
An armed attack by Russian or Belarusian military also poses a threat, originating from either Kaliningrad – the nuclear-armed Russian land north of Poland – or from Belarusian territory to the east.
Sources say the Kremlin could cover any border crossing as an unintentional navigation error caused by GPS malfunction, or frame it as an emergency helicopter recovery mission.
Vladimir Putin’s is said to be planning military action along Nato’s eastern frontier
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GETTYAccording to Onet, the move is intended to trigger diplomatic engagement via the threat of military confrontation, bringing about a negotiated withdrawal of forces that would be a victory for the Kremlin.
Ending Western support for Ukraine would likely form a core demand by Russia during any such negotiations, in exchange for pulling back from Polish soil.
The worst-case outcome for Nato would see Russia both undermine Polish sovereignty, exposing Nato as ineffective, and secure the termination of Ukrainian military aid – all without getting its hands dirty.
European security analysts believe Moscow views Poland as a more advantageous target than the Baltic states.
Recent strains between Poland and Ukraine over historical disputes and agricultural competition could present an opportunity Mr Putin hopes to exploit.
A recent naval exercise conducted in Latvian waters, featuring American naval and marine forces, served as a deliberate signal to Moscow that any assault on the eastern flank would constitute an attack on US military personnel.
Sources close to President Karol Nawrocki say Poland is prepared for a Russian attack
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REUTERS
Polish defence ministry officials confirmed the nation has already undertaken military drills designed to demonstrate the alliance’s capacity for response to any provocation.
Holger Neumann, commander of the Luftwaffe, declared last month that Germany would protect “every inch” of alliance territory, including Poland, should defensive action become necessary.
The German air force chief identified Kaliningrad, St Petersburg’s naval installations, the Kola Peninsula nuclear facilities, and Black Sea fleet positions as potential targets in any conflict scenario.
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