Von der Leyen aims for a second term but still needs a deal

On paper, the numbers so far work in her favor. Altogether, these three groups — the EPP, Socialists & Democrats and Renew — are now set to add up to 407 seats in the European Parliament, according to updated figures. She only needs 361 votes to get her nomination approved.

However, not all the EPP lawmakers will back her, including most prominently the French EPP politicians who see her as a loyalist not to the political family, but to their rival French President Emmanuel Macron.

Experts and party officials assume that more than 10 percent of the lawmakers in each of the three centrist groups — including her own EPP — will either oppose her or abstain.

Backroom deals

Frantic backroom horse-trading is likely to get underway in earnest as the dust settles on the election result. Von der Leyen will have an opportunity to put her case directly to the German, French and Italian leaders at the G7 summit starting in Italy on Thursday.

EU leaders will meet next Monday in Brussels, followed by another summit at the end of this month to hammer out agreements on the top jobs in the European institutions, including the presidencies of the Parliament and the European Council. Von der Leyen’s pitch will be as a safe pair of hands amid political and security turmoil.

It’s also not just the parliamentary numbers that will determine von der Leyen’s fate.