Washington state is currently experiencing a summer surge of COVID-19, an abnormal pattern for common respiratory viruses. This upward trend is less severe than previous summers since the onset of the pandemic, but also points to concerns of tracking the virus.
For the week of June 16, the Washington state Department of Health’s Respiratory Illness Data Dashboard recorded a 5.9% change in COVID-19 hospitalizations and a 15.4% increase in COVID-19 emergency visits compared to the week prior.
When at-home COVID-19 testing became available, the number of cases reported decreased significantly. Nicholas Irons, a Ph.D. candidate in the UW department of statistics and COVID-19 researcher, explains that scientists have turned to other ways of tracking the disease.
“[Reported cases] essentially dropped to zero, so that’s not really an informative source anymore,” Irons said. “Hospitalizations, deaths, wastewater, [and] other sources of data that aren’t tied to testing … tend to be much better sources of information.”
Irons furthered that researchers usually combine these three sources to create an accurate picture of the disease’s spread. These current issues in tracking the disease are magnified by how quickly COVID-19 evolves.
“There might be a new strain that comes out, and people were immune to the last COVID strain, but now it’s just a new one that can get through their immune system and cause infection,” Irons said. “That’s another reason we might see … summer outbreaks that we don’t see with other respiratory infections.”
Unlike other common respiratory illnesses, particularly the flu, this trend shows that COVID-19 may not follow the same pattern of peaking in the winter months. Irons also emphasized that despite the current increase, COVID-19 is significantly less deadly.
“Most people have been vaccinated for COVID multiple times at this point, many people have had COVID, sometimes multiple times,” Irons said. “Because there’s prior immunity, the outcomes tend to be much less worse.”
Irons nevertheless encouraged individuals to take precautions against the virus, including wearing a mask after exposure or self-isolation.
Reach reporter Anna Hull at news@dailyuw.com. X: @anna_fph
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