The single most decisive factor in building an NRL dynasty?
It’s right up there alongside club culture, a factory line of rugby league talent, meticulous roster management and a couple of Clearys.
“Keeping your players on the paddock,” four-time premiership-winning Penrith coach Ivan Cleary says.
“Managing their bodies and workloads – honestly, I can tell you that so much of the decision-making I make, the day-to-day decisions, it’s all revolving around keeping players fit and healthy.”
This is arguably the most instructive lens through which to view Penrith’s premiership chances, and how their current form line compares to those in each of their 2021-24 title-winning campaigns and last season’s outlier (where they still made a preliminary final).
The Panthers’ form of late – including Thursday’s gritty win over Parramatta with two sin-bins – has been several shades short of perfection. But the bookmakers still have them pegged as prohibitive premiership favourites.
Only the brave and the stupid are putting their money anywhere else. The Panthers’ recent run of mixed form has been viewed far and wide as little more than an Origin period wobble.
Most importantly, throughout the most dominant first five months of an NRL season since the same team’s efforts in 2022, the Panthers’ playing squad has remained in remarkably good health.
Aside from Dylan Edwards being ruled out this week by a shoulder injury, Mitch Kenny is their only regular first-grader stuck on the sidelines.
Liam Martin (knee – six weeks), Casey McLean (quad – four weeks) and Liam Henry (hamstring – eight weeks) have missed chunks of the season. And that’s pretty much it.
Penrith’s injury toll amounts to a combined total of just 34 weeks spent on the sidelines, according to the figures diligently kept by Brien Seeney NRL Physio and independent statistician Rowan Waight.
Not only is that number the lowest in the NRL by a staggering 25 weeks, it’s less than a quarter of the combined time Parramatta’s NRL squad has spent on the sidelines (142 weeks), and a third of the injury tolls weathered by Melbourne (124 weeks) and Souths (122 weeks) – and as good as in comparison to the Broncos, Warriors and Wests Tigers (104 weeks).
“There’s luck involved, for sure,” Cleary stresses.
“Some injuries just can’t be helped. And we don’t have all the answers as a club, either; no one does.
“You’re constantly readjusting, learning and working out the balance between data, GPS numbers, knowing your players, collaborating with them and also knowing when to trust your instincts on something. It really is a whole industry now.”
Just for something different – and ignoring the luck factor – Penrith do injury prevention and management better than anyone in the game.
In 2025, Penrith’s total of 70 weeks missed through injury across the season ranked second only to Wests Tigers (63).
The previous year, their 60 weeks was the NRL’s lowest tally once more.
But since they started winning premierships for fun, Penrith have never been this fit, this deep into a season.
How do the Panthers compare to their previous premiership years?
Every NRL campaign has its own tale to tell. This year’s for Penrith includes the breakout left edge of Casey McLean and Tom Jenkins, with Jenkins’ aerial prowess especially offering Nathan Cleary a new cross-field kick target previous Panthers wingers didn’t.
The increased remit of six-agains had Penrith moving the ball earlier and more often in sets to come out of trouble at the start of the year. Paul Alamoti has thrived. Blaize Talagi’s form has waxed and waned in recent weeks. Cleary is odds-on for the first Dally M medal of his career.
This Panthers outfit plays more expansively and makes more mistakes than those that powered to titles in 2021 and 2022. Their attack has morphed since Api Koroisau moved on and rough-and-tumble Kenny became the first-choice hooker.
The 30.4 points Penrith average each game this year is their most at this stage of the season since 2021. The 13.9 points they concede sits between their 2023 and 2024 premiership average.
The Warriors are their most consistent rival, the Roosters have the pedigree in their roster to challenge them, and if the Dolphins were fit and to catch fire on grand final day, their attack is capable of anything.
Again, though, Penrith’s fitness sets them apart. Just as it did in each of their previous title runs, when the Panthers had an impressive knack of fielding either a first-choice 17, or very close to it, on grand final day.
During those 2021-24 seasons though, Cleary was sidelined at various stages by hamstring and shoulder injuries. In 2026, he has only missed games through Origin duties or being rested afterwards, albeit while gritting his teeth through a groin injury.
The 2021 grand final was won with half Penrith’s side playing on one leg (and Edwards playing with a broken foot). Jarome Luai’s dicey shoulder was a compelling 2023 grand final storyline.
“The players deserve a lot of credit, and our medical staff obviously too,” Ivan Cleary says.
Longtime head physio Pete Green, rehab physio Mitch Delahey and head of performance Tom Lovell play key roles in Penrith’s football department.
“I think the best way I can explain it is that you have plan A, B, C and so on for week-to-week, and then longer term too,” Cleary says.
“And say something like the Origin period, so much goes into it. We’ve given our NSW players probably more rest than anyone. And so many factors will go into that.
“But we’ll look at an Origin and consider how big a game it was, how long did they play, what was the emotional state of it, did they win, did they lose, what’s the fallout? There’s so many elements to it.
“Where are we playing next? What’s their travel and turnaround? Then there’s things in your own season. Say if you’re in-form and winning games, then you’re probably controlling the game, which means players are maybe less drained mentally and physically.
“It all goes into the mix. And all-in-all, you’re trying to make sure your players are fit and ready to play at the end of the season when it matters most”.
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