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It is, once again, the time of the Asian Cup. To a party of the party that never happens. For years, even decades, the prospect of an India-Pakistan final has been mocked and tempted, but it remained out of reach, leaving the two subcontinent giants sportingly and commercially hungry. And for most of that time, it is the team Pakistan will face tomorrow – Sri Lanka – that has proudly played a killjoy, planting its flag firmly between India and Pakistan, cementing its status as an Asian mainstay. Only twice in the 39-year history of the ODI version of this tournament have Sri Lanka failed to reach the trophy match, and in the games that matter in this tournament over time, Sri Lanka usually prevails.
Sri Lanka seems to be the more established side at present; their loss to India was their first in 14 matches dating back to June. Despite being ravaged by injuries ahead of the tournament (the absences of Wanindu Hasaranga and Dushmantha Chameera were a blow), the replacements have proven to be stellar. Wellalage, 20 years old and with a baby face, is the player with the highest wicket-taking capacity in the tournament, with nine and an average of 14.66. Fast bowler Matheesha Pathirana is one wicket behind and Maheesh Theekshana just one more adrift. Sadeera Samarawickrama and Kusal Mendis have shone with the bat at times during this tournament, although not entirely against Pakistan’s quality bowling.
Pakistan really just needs to put an end to the match against India and keep their eyes on Sunday’s prize. A favorable result in the India-Sri Lanka match means that Thursday is now a virtual semi-final for both sides, and a good performance will give them a chance to make amends in the final. Mohammad Wasim, Zaman Khan and Shahnawaz Dahani do not have the same threat as Pakistan’s main fast bowling trio, but two of them will partner Shaheen Afridi. Shadab Khan, who had an indifferent game against India, will try to take inspiration from the success of Sri Lanka’s spinners, who took all ten wickets against India. Pakistan’s batting, which has not been tested enough and collapsed under pressure against India, is still heavily dependent on the top three. This will be rearranged on Thursday, with Pakistan dropping Fakhar Zaman, and the new combination will need broad enough shoulders to carry the load.
forms guide
Sri Lanka LWWWW (last five ODIs completed, most recent first)
Pakistan LWWWW
In the spotlight
People might make fun of ODI intermediates, but Charith Asalanka he loves them. More T20 cricket has meant it is difficult to find true middle-order specialists in the 50-over format, but in Asalanka, Sri Lanka has one of the best. Since making his debut, no batsman arriving at number 5 or lower has scored the most runs in the format than their 1199, and they average just under 45. Against a Pakistan bowling unit that has notoriously struggled in this phase, Asalanka could be kryptonite. In their last three matches, Pakistan bowlers have gone wicketless from 15th to 38th, 10th to 30th and 18th over respectively. Simply put, he is at his strongest when Pakistan is at its weakest.
It is worrying enough that Pakistan are too reliant on their front three for one of them to lose control. Less than five months ago, Fakhar Zaman plundered New Zealand through Karachi and Rawalpindi, scoring centuries in three consecutive matches. But there has always been a feast-or-famine vibe to its form, and since then, the desert has spread throughout the oasis. An average of less than 21 and a strike rate of less than 80 has made Pakistan decide to make a change and bring Mohamed Haris at the top of the order. Haris’s own explosiveness when the field is ready is already well established, but most of his success has come in T20 cricket. Whether he will be able to adapt his game to the longer format and push himself equally at the top remains to be seen, but in a potentially low-scoring match, he could go a long way to make or break Pakistan.
team news
Sri Lanka should try to maintain the combination that almost brought them success against India, and changes are unlikely to come.
Sri Lanka (possible): 1 Dimuth Karunaratne, 2 Pathum Nissanka, 3 Kusal Mendis (wk), 4 Sadeera Samarawickrama, 5 Charith Asalanka, 6 Dhananjaya de Silva, 7 Dasun Shanka (captain), 8 Dunith Wellalage, 9 Maheesh Theekshana, 10 Kasun Rajitha , 11 Matheesha Pathirana.
Pakistan have made four changes, with Fakhar missing out after a run of poor form. Mohammad Haris takes his place. Salman Ali Agha’s cut under his eye also keeps him out, with Saud Shakeel taking his place. The two forced fast bowling overs see Mohammad Wasim and Zaman Khan start.
Pakistan: 1 Mohammad Haris, 2 Imam-ul-Haq, 3 Babar Azam (captain), 4 Mohammad Rizwan (wk), 5 Saud Shakeel, 6 Iftikhar Ahmed, 7 Shadab Khan, 8 Mohammad Nawaz, 9 Mohammad Wasim, 10 Shaheen Shah Afridi , 11 Zaman Khan.
Field and conditions
Rain is forecast on Thursday, as there has been almost every day in Colombo, although there is enough rest in between to allow for plenty of cricket.
Statistics and curiosities
- Sri Lanka has reached 11 Asia Cup finals, far more than India (9) or Pakistan (5).
- Pakistan have won each of their last eight full ODIs against Sri Lanka.
Danyal Rasool is Pakistan correspondent for ESPNcricinfo. @danny61000
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