What does US improving ties with Pakistan mean for India

India is watching

India will be closely following as Washington’s renewed interest in Sharif’s government evolves. If the US decides to support Pakistan’s economy through limited bilateral economic assistance, or encourage the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to extend a new standby assistance programme to Pakistan, India could hardly object. A more economically stable Pakistan is also in India’s interest, as a sharply destabilised or weak Pakistan can create new problems for India through greater cross-border flow of terror elements, drugs, threats to the security of its nuclear weapons and deeper inroads by China. The US could well explain its enhanced ties with Pakistan with India’s growing ties with Russia.

If the US decides to resume military assistance to Pakistan in any meaningful manner, such as the supply of a new generation of fighter aircraft, missiles, long-distance artillery, and mountain guns, then India would certainly object. Ditto, if the US supports Pakistan in reviving the Kashmir issue. New Delhi considers the Kashmir issue closed, and would not reopen any talks with Pakistan on it.

It is unlikely that the US would take any of these steps at the current juncture, as it still needs India’s assistance in its current rivalry with China. The Sino-Philippines maritime conflict in the South China Sea in which the US is obliged to support the latter, can worsen anytime. The dumping of electric vehicles (EVs) by China in the US market and China’s alleged cyberattacks against some US agencies are adding fresh tensions between the two nations.