Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr did not dwell on warships or water cannons when he rose to speak at the country’s Independence Day celebrations on Friday.
Instead, he signalled a new strategy in broaching the topic of the South China Sea: recasting the waterway not as an arena of territorial disputes, but rather as a shared vulnerability.
In doing so, analysts say he may have found a way to keep China’s behaviour in the regional conversation without triggering direct confrontation between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and its largest trading partner.
“Asean is unlikely to adopt a collective position on contested South China Sea claims,” said political analyst Sylwia Monika Gorska, a doctoral student of international relations at the University of Central Lancashire.
“Not because the issue is unimportant, but because consensus, sovereignty and non-interference limit how far the bloc can go on territorial questions.”
“The declaration gives Manila another route,” Gorska added, referring to the Asean Maritime Leaders’ Declaration that Marcos invoked during his speech, which was signed last month at the bloc’s 48th summit in Cebu.
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