Former President Donald Trump is in New York, set for arrest and arraignment Tuesday on charges related to hush money paid to porn actor Stormy Daniels shortly before the 2016 election. the charges, the news of the first indictment of a former US president has had time to sink in with Americans, and media organizations and voting teams have had time to conduct detailed polls on how they feel.
It is difficult to significantly sway opinions about Trump. He has been a celebrity for 40 years and arguably the dominant figure in American life for the last eight. Most Americans have a relatively strong stance on the former casino owner, pop culture mainstay and right-wing politician.
Combine that with the fact that the details of the Daniels scandal (a wealthy famous man allegedly had an affair and then paid the woman money to keep quiet) have been out since early 2018 and don’t exactly go against the grain. Trump. libertine imageAnd that’s a recipe for stasis.
Still, the polls of the past few days can tell us a lot about how Americans view Trump, the impeachment, and the 2024 presidential election. Here are four takeaways:
The Americans believe that the accusation is justified.
In three polls released since the indictment was released Thursday, pluralities or majorities of the public approved of the grand jury’s decision to indict: 51% of voters in a Morning Consultation Survey45% of Americans in a ABC News/Ipsos poll and 60% of Americans in a CNN/SSRS poll. In all three, between 30% and 40% of respondents disapproved of the decision.
The Morning Consult and ABC News/Ipsos polls gave respondents an “I don’t know” option, while CNN did not. In the ABC News/Ipsos poll, 23% said they didn’t know if the charges were justified, while 12% said the same in the Morning Consult poll. (The gap between the two could be due to differences in respondents. Morning Consult surveyed voters, who tend to have stronger opinions and more information than non-voting members of the public.)
The CNN poll also found that only 10% of Americans considered Trump innocent for the payment to Daniels, while 37% thought his actions were illegal and 33% thought they were unethical but not illegal.
They also think the accusation is political.
At the same time, the public believes that politics played a significant role in Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s investigation and in the grand jury’s decision to indict. In the CNN poll, a 52% majority said politics played a “significant” role in the decision to impeach Trump, while 76% said it played at least some role. The ABC News/Ipsos poll found that 47% of Americans thought the charges were politically motivated, while 32% did not.
Morning Consult’s question on the matter was more divided: 46% said the grand jury’s decision was driven primarily by “Evidence that he (Trump) committed a crime,” compared to 43% who said it was driven by mainly to “Motivation to damage his political career.”
Navigator Research poll, a Democratic group, recommends that party officials combat Republican messaging on politically motivated charges by emphasizing that “no one is above the law, not even a former president.”
It may be helping Trump among Republicans.
Even before the impeachment, polls in recent weeks had shown Trump gaining a substantial lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in GOP presidential primary polls. The accusation, which led DeSantis to defend Trump even as a Trump-aligned super PAC attacked DeSantis, that dynamic isn’t likely to change anytime soon.
Polls show that Republicans, especially Republican primary voters, strongly disapprove of the impeachment. In the Morning Consult poll, for example, only 19% of Republican primary voters approved of the impeachment, while 70% disapproved. TO survey of Marist College, NPR and Public Broadcasting Service — published just days before the impeachment—found that 80% of Republicans thought Trump was the victim of a “witch hunt.”
The impact on the 2024 general elections could be less.
Right now, Trump is the favorite to win the Republican nomination and challenge President Joe Biden in his highly anticipated 2024 re-election campaign.. Polls generally show that a potential matchup between the two will be close, and the prosecution hasn’t changed that immediately.
About a third of Americans had a favorable opinion of Trump in the latest CNN poll, while 58% had an unfavorable opinion. That’s not a huge change from the last time he asked about the former president, in January, when 32% had a favorable opinion and 63% had an unfavorable opinion.
Morning Consult asked voters whether Trump should run for president again, and 58% said no, while 37% said yes. That is basically the same as the previous time he asked, in early March.
It’s worth remembering that impeachment isn’t the only problem facing Trump. Legal experts consider an ongoing process investigation in Trump’s efforts to overturn the Georgia election results, along with Justice Department investigations into his role in the January 6, 2021 insurrection and his handling of classified documents, to be more serious than the case in NY. An additional impeachment in the future could hurt Trump substantially.
Discover more from PressNewsAgency
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.