As Malaysia assumes the ASEAN Chairmanship in 2025, the regional bloc finds itself at a crossroads. The 10-member organization is grappling with crises that have challenged its legitimacy and cohesion, from the deepening political and humanitarian disaster in Myanmar to the territorial disputes simmering in the South China Sea. In the face of these persistent issues, many are asking: Can Malaysia steer ASEAN out of its current quagmire? Or will the chairmanship merely serve as another symbolic exercise, unable to produce meaningful change?
With lofty expectations placed on Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s leadership, this could be the year Malaysia either redefines ASEAN’s role in an increasingly multipolar world or succumbs to the limitations of consensus-driven diplomacy. Here are the key challenges, opportunities, and strategies that Malaysia must address to rekindle the ASEAN spirit – and what’s at stake if it fails.
The Myanmar Crisis: Time for Tough Love?
No issue has more deeply tested ASEAN’s relevance than the Myanmar crisis. Since the military junta took control in February 2021, the bloc’s response has been weak at best. The widely criticized Five-Point Consensus, intended to restore peace and stability, remains largely ignored by Myanmar’s military government. ASEAN’s traditional approach of non-interference and consensus decision-making has left it paralyzed, unable to take stronger action. This ineffectiveness raises questions about ASEAN’s ability to act decisively in times of regional crisis.
For Malaysia, the Myanmar issue is a chance to push for a bolder, more assertive approach. Rather than relying on ASEAN’s traditional mechanisms, Malaysia could advocate for a “minilateral” approach, where a smaller coalition of concerned ASEAN countries – particularly those with the most at stake, like Thailand – work together to negotiate a peace process. Malaysia could also push to revitalize the ASEAN Troika, an informal group of foreign ministers from the past, current, and future chairs, to coordinate a more focused diplomatic response.
The current troika, comprising Indonesia, Laos, and Malaysia, offers a unique opportunity for Putrajaya to lead this more targeted response. By exploring non-consensus-driven approaches to regional crises, Malaysia could break the stalemate and demonstrate that ASEAN can act when its core values are threatened. Failure to move the needle on Myanmar risks reinforcing the perception that ASEAN is little more than a talk shop with no real political clout.
Balancing China: Can Malaysia Keep ASEAN Together?
The South China Sea dispute remains another thorny issue, where Malaysia will have to tread carefully. As both a claimant state and ASEAN’s country coordinator for China relations, Malaysia faces the delicate task of balancing its own interests and those of the region. Anwar’s push for an expedited Code of Conduct to manage disputes in the South China Sea will be a critical test of Malaysia’s diplomatic acumen.
However, there’s a growing concern among some ASEAN members, like the Philippines and Vietnam, that Malaysia’s close ties with China could undermine its ability to act as an impartial mediator. In recent years, Malaysia has cozied up to Beijing, aligning on issues like the Israel-Palestine conflict and economic partnerships through BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). This pivot could raise doubts about Malaysia’s neutrality, potentially weakening trust among ASEAN’s claimant states.
Malaysia’s challenge will be to push for a reinforcement of the rules-based order in the South China Sea while maintaining ASEAN unity. It must ensure that ASEAN’s collective interests take precedence over any single nation’s ties to Beijing. Failure to do so risks alienating key ASEAN partners and could derail progress on the Code of Conduct, which has been under negotiation since 2002.
The Digital Economy and RCEP: Malaysia’s Economic Agenda
Beyond its diplomatic challenges, Malaysia’s chairmanship offers a chance to bolster ASEAN’s economic agenda. With the world’s largest trade agreement, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), now in force, Malaysia could make this a centerpiece of its chairmanship. Fully implementing RCEP could position ASEAN as a hub for regional growth, but this will require significant coordination to overcome regulatory and infrastructural barriers.
Malaysia also has the opportunity to drive negotiations on the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement, which was launched in 2023. By 2030, the digital economy could add $2 trillion to the region, but for that to happen, Malaysia must help ASEAN nations harmonize their digital policies. Anwar’s vision of making Malaysia an AI-driven economy provides a blueprint for the kind of leadership needed to push these initiatives forward.
However, this won’t be easy. Some ASEAN nations lag in digital infrastructure, and there is a wide gap in regulatory standards across the region. Malaysia will need to focus on building bridges – both literal and metaphorical – to ensure that no member state is left behind in this digital transformation.
Global Realignments: Malaysia’s Shift Toward BRICS and the Middle East
A notable development that could shape Malaysia’s ASEAN chairmanship is its shift toward strengthening ties with the BRICS nations and the Middle East. Malaysia’s recent overtures to China and Russia, as well as its pro-Palestinian stance, suggest a recalibrated foreign policy that leans toward the Global South. While this may enhance Malaysia’s domestic standing, it also risks causing friction within ASEAN, which has traditionally maintained neutrality in global conflicts.
As ASEAN chair, Malaysia must ensure its foreign policy realignments do not fracture the bloc’s cohesion. Some ASEAN members, particularly those with closer ties to the West, may view Malaysia’s overtures to BRICS with suspicion. Malaysia’s challenge will be to ensure that ASEAN continues to act as a neutral and central player in the Asia-Pacific, rather than allowing global realignments to pull it in conflicting directions.
A Year of Leadership or a Year of Missed Opportunities?
The stakes for Malaysia’s ASEAN Chairmanship are high. Anwar has both the opportunity and the responsibility to lead ASEAN through one of its most challenging periods in recent memory. By addressing the Myanmar crisis with bold new proposals, advancing the South China Sea talks, pushing forward economic integration, and balancing its global partnerships, Malaysia could leave a lasting mark on the region.
But the risks of failure are equally significant. If Malaysia cannot navigate these challenges, ASEAN’s relevance as a regional bloc will continue to erode. Expectations are sky-high, but so too are the potential rewards. The world will be watching to see if Malaysia can restore ASEAN unity, or if 2025 will be remembered as a year of missed opportunities.
As Malaysia steps into the ASEAN chairmanship, the question is no longer if ASEAN can survive – it’s whether Malaysia can lead it into a more united, effective future.
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