Why is ECOWAS hesitant about a military intervention in Niger?

After being unanimously elected as President of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in July, the president of Nigeria tinubou ball stated that the organization must promote democracy in a region plagued by coups past decade. “We should not be toothless bulldogs” Tinubu said“We must stand firm in democracy … Democracy is very difficult to handle but it is the best form of government.”

In less than a month in the highest seat of ECOWAS, Tinubu is in front of his first big test Following the coup in Niger on July 26, ECOWAS handed over to the perpetrating junta an ultimatum release President Mohamed Bazoum and restore order or face full military intervention.

As the deadline came and went on Sunday night, the board reaffirmed its decision and closed Niger airspace – indicating that they are taking their neighbors’ threats seriously.

Analysis F24 Niger

The Ivory Coast and Senegal have backed the Nigerian-led plan to intervene in Niger, but political support among ECOWAS members is far from uniform. Benin, for example, has said that it will not send troops.

Ivory Coast and Senegal have supportedd the Nigerian plan to militarily intervene in Niger, but political support among ECOWAS members is not universal. Benin, for example, has said that will not send troops.

More problematic says Ezenwa Olumba, a West African sub-region specialist in the United Kingdom Royal Holloway University, are the governments of Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea that are actively undermining ECOWAS plans.

These military governments, which came to power through coups and are suspended from ECOWAS, said they consider any intervention by ECOWAS a “declaration of war” and have signaled that they will support Niger.

Coup leader closes airspace

‘Tinubu miscalculation’

olumba says all this has been a great miscalculation by tinubou. “(Tinubu) was quick to give an ultimatum to the military leaders in Niger without even talking to Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso…I didn’t know they would support Niger,” says Olumba, “Essentially, Nigeria would be at war with Mali. , Burkina Faso, Niger and Guinea”.

This and other considerations have stimulated non-ECOWAS regional actors Algeria and Chad to strongly condemnNo Nigerian idea, sayany military action runs the risk of escalating into a broader regional conflict. Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune told state television it would be “a direct threat” to his country, which shares a 1,000-kilometre border with Niger.

Even within Nigeria, the military powerhouse of ECOWAS and the driving force behind a possible intervention in Niger, there are dissenting voices. On Friday night, the biggest opposition coalition criticized what they say is a military action “not only useless but irresponsible”.

“For several days now, politicians have been calling on ECOWAS to prioritize negotiation. Despite the majority, President Tinubu knows he will have a hard time getting Senate approval to commit Nigerian soldiers,” reported Moïse Gomis, FRANCE Correspondent for 24 in Abuja.

Politicians in northern Nigeria have drawn attention to the military’s ongoing conflict with escalating jihadist violence in the region, casting doubt on whether the country can afford to confront Niger militarily.

regional tension

Although if this problem besets Nigeria, it is far more of a problem for Niger’s allies Mali and Burkina Faso, Dominique Trinquand, said the former head of the French military mission to the UN. “Mali and Burkina Faso, have a lot to do with the jihadists in their own countries, they will not have enough strength to sacrifice themselves for a conflict in Niger… the military advantage rests with ECOWAS” Trinquand told FRANCE 24

If Tinubu can muster the political will to intervene in Niger, Russia, which has backed the coup, and its veto power in the UN security council will leave little hope that West African countries will do so. obtain a legal mandate to follow your policy. This would set a new precedent as this was not the case in 2017 when ECOWAS entered The Gambia to facilitate the peaceful transfer of power.

ECOWAS announced on Monday that it will meet again on Thursday for mtake out his next steps. For the moment, the the leader of the block, Nigeria, seems blocked in a non-military solution.

“The main goal is to hope that sanctions and other targeted measures will result in the military restoring constitutional status and therefore not needing military intervention,” says Dr. Vines, director of Chatham House’s Africa Program . “I think we shouldn’t expect a military intervention right away.”

Although a wild card is Tinubu himself. After investing a lot of political capital to resolve the situation and threatening intervention, backing down now could result in a loss of credibility that may be hard for the new leader of Nigeria and ECOWAS to swallow.

“Tinubu is someone who does not want to lose face, he is uncompromising. He is someone who wants to realize what he says…he is not going to want to back down”, says Ezenwa Olumba.