Why US military deals still aren’t enough to steer India away from Russian weapons

Also, Russia’s war in Ukraine has disrupted some military supplies to India, reinforcing New Delhi‘The long-term desire to diversify imports or replace them with home-built hardware, Indian defense officials said.

India bought more than $60 billion worth of weapons in the past 20 years, of which 65 percent or nearly $39 billion was from Russia, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

Defense Minister Rajnath Singh has said India intends to order more than $100 billion worth of weapons from the domestic arms industry over the next decade.

“It is a reality that we have to reduce dependence on Russia,” said a senior Indian defense official working on the future capabilities of the Indian army, who declined to be named. “But that’s the second part. The first part is the effort to get out of the import business.”

India announced significant purchases of US defense equipment during Prime Ministerial Narendra Modi‘s state visit to Washington last month, including a Billion-plus dollar order for GE engines for combat aircraft. A potential $3 billion deal for MQ-9B SeaGuardian drone is also being discussed.

Online with New Delhi‘s desire for self-sufficiency in defense and Modi‘flagship “Made in India” policy, the jet engine deal includes future joint manufacturing, while assembly and maintenance of the SeaGuardians will likely take place in India.

eric garcettithe US ambassador to India, said Washington had previously paid “lips out” but now it was facilitating India’s access to military technologies. He said that the United States was “relying on technology” sharing more with India than with some of its closest allies.

However, the moves so far will not be enough to end New Delhi’s dependence on Russia, while strict US rules governing the sharing of military technology limit future possibilities for now.

“Nobody gives you everything. They keep you at least a screwdriver away from having it complete,” said a second senior Indian official‘from the Defense Ministry, who also spoke on condition of anonymity.

Arzan Tarapore, an Indian security expert at Stanford University, said the deals announced during Modi‘visit “they do not in themselves represent an Indian departure from Russia.”

“A big shift away from Russia will take several decades,” he said.

Gap with China

India still mainly uses Russian technology for traditional weapons. Tarapore said the greatest potential for US-India collaboration should be in the new systems that India does not have.‘I do not have.

India‘The main objective is to reduce the technological gap with its better-armed arch-rival China, with which it has a tense relationship and which is also closely allied with its traditional enemy, Pakistan.

One problem for India is that Russia‘s war on Ukraine it has severely dented Moscow’s ability to deliver weapons and equipment.

India’s air force recently told a parliamentary panel that Russia would delay deliveries of spare parts for the Sukhoi Su-30 MKI and MiG-29 fighter jets. An expensive item, believed to be the remaining two of the five Russians. S-400 The air defense systems that India bought for almost $5.5 billion in 2018 have also been delayed, he said.

India also expected to receive two nuclear-powered attack submarines from Russia in the next few years, but these too could be delayed, defense officials have said.
Such problems have bolstered India‘s is determined to be less dependent on Russia, but does not want to be dependent on any nation for its arms purchases, they said.

It is buying French fighter jets, Israeli drones, American jet engines and possibly German submarines.

Over time, these purchases will reduce the proportion of Russian military technology used by India, but this would take at least two decades, Indian officials said.

less limitations

Bill Greenwalt, a former top Pentagon official for industrial policy, said the days when the United States and Russia dominated the global defense market and could control defense technology were coming to an end, but what would replace it was “still a work in progress.”

He said India could be frustrated by the strict US arms export control system and the restrictions it places on both the sharing of technology and its ability to develop systems it purchases.

“I hope that India will seek cooperation with the West with those countries that can transfer technology…with the least amount of limitations on its use,” he said.

Exports to India must comply with the US’s strict International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) and the two countries are not treaty allies. – Which, for example, means that the level of technology sharing provided under the AUKUS agreement to supply Australia with nuclear-powered submarines is not on the cards.

Still Modi‘The US visit has been hailed by both sides for taking the relationship to a new level. In addition to defense deals, the two countries also signed deals on chips, space, artificial intelligence, and critical minerals.

India is also a member of the QUAD alliance with the US, Japan and Australia, which deepens its ties with the West but does not replace its decades-long relationship with Russia.

Derek Grossman, a defense analyst at the Rand Corporation, said that because of this, the US would always be wary of the military hardware and technology it shares with India.

Even if India can move away from Moscow in the coming decades, Grossman said,“The United States will still be suspicious about how their systems are being used and how that might help the Russians in any way, because of that close India-Russia partnership.”

“India is going to be opportunistic in this situation and will accept whatever the United States is willing to offer. But I don’t think they are willing to give up what they have with Russia.”