Will Japan’s anti-immigrant far-right parties win more votes in key election?

As Japan heads into a pivotal upper house election, populist parties on the far-right are seizing on anti-immigrant rhetoric to win over voters, echoing the strategies of US President Donald Trump’s Republicans and hard-right movements across Europe.

While candidates from across the political spectrum in Japan campaign on familiar issues such as inflation, jobs and defence, a surge in anti-immigrant messaging has also reframed the national conversation ahead of the House of Councillors election on Sunday.

The shift is being driven by the rise of ultraconservative groups like Sanseito, a party founded in 2020, which is polling fourth in opinion surveys among the 10 parties contesting the election. While Sanseito’s support remains modest – just 5.9 per cent according to a July 11 NHK poll – more than 33 per cent of voters say they are still undecided.

With the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) struggling to rebound from a string of scandals and polling at just 24 per cent, political analysts say the election could produce a hung result, forcing the LDP to negotiate with smaller parties to retain power.

That may give hardline groups such as Sanseito or other right-leaning contenders – the Conservative Party of Japan (CPJ), the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin), or the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) – the leverage to demand a role in government or even a cabinet seat, according to analysts.

Hiromichi Moteki, a conservative historian who lives in Tokyo, used to be a supporter of the LDP but has grown disillusioned by its present leadership, dismissing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba as “hopeless”.