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Experts at India’s Ministry of Health and Family Welfare published a paper on April 9 2020, looking at 41 sentinel sites across the country. It revealed that of the 5 911 severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) patients tested since February 15, 1.8% have tested positive for Covid-19. Of those who tested positive, 39.2% did not report international travel or any history of contact with a known patient — clearly indicating that at least parts of India are likely to be in the stage of community transmission. By itself, this is neither unusual nor surprising — it is indeed the nature of pandemics to take root in communities over time.

A total of 179 374 samples from 164 773 individuals have been tested as of April 11 2020.

Just around 7 703 individuals have been confirmed Covid-19 positive. India is testing just over 17 000 samples per day, which is inadequate given the vastness of the country and the current spread covering almost half the districts. This means that the true scale of spread remains unknown and most areas remain potential breakout zones. The spurts that we are witnessing in cities like Mumbai, Delhi, Jaipur, Indore and Ahmedabad are cause for deep concern.

Despite efforts over the past few weeks to give it a boost, India’s healthcare delivery capacity remains limited. According to the government, an order for 49 000 ventilators has been placed in view of the low numbers that exist within the system, but it is unclear by when they will arrive and be distributed among the special centres created for Covid-19 patients. The government has acknowledged the need for “rapidly ramping up” the number of corona-testing facilities, personal protective equipment (PPE), isolation beds, ICU beds, ventilators, and other essential equipment.

This only serves to highlight the fact that the current levels of healthcare facilities will not stand a chance of coping with a sudden and huge surge. Hence, a national lockdown was, and remains, the only option since any widespread community breakout will overwhelm medical infrastructure.

If we go by what has been officially stated, more than half of India’s districts are yet to record a single case of Covid-19. But the virus may have made its way to many of these districts. Whether or not this is true will only be known through increased testing, which has not happened and is something that needs to be rectified with alacrity.

India has no doubt responded strongly and decisively to the crisis by opting for a countrywide lockdown. According to the Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) database’s Stringency Index, on March 25, India was the sixth country to opt for a complete lockdown and achieve a stringency index score of 100.

Yet, the fact remains that the lockdown is a blunt instrument. A country like India cannot afford to indefinitely extend it across regions when a clear assessment of the risk of community spread is impossible for lack of information.

The lockdown, as we have it now, has virtually brought the national economy to a grinding halt. This hurts the informal workforce, micro businesses, and unorganised labour the most, and is bound to have long-lasting implications. The use of a nationwide lockdown, instead of a fine-grained approach, was a forced hand because of the impossibility of conducting local-level assessments of the spread. The cost of not testing smartly or widely enough — whatever the reason — is unfortunately being borne disproportionately by daily wagers and vulnerable groups.

We can only hope that the experts the government is consulting have briefed the political leadership about the lessons learnt — nationally and globally — over the past few months. And that in the next week or two, we will not be blinded by lack of information or intent, or be limited by tentativeness of action. One must make it clear that full marks need to be given for the stringent 21-day lockdown: It was the need of the hour.

Capitalising on the lockdown

However, as of now we have failed to capitalise on the time advantage the lockdown has given us. We need to think on our feet, tap into every resource possible, and formulate an exit strategy rather than make the poor pay for an overburdened system’s lack of agility. We also need to prevent value destruction on account of unimaginative policy.

This is the moment to embrace talent from outside the confines of government and infuse economic policy with ideas to reignite the Indian economy and tell the world that the India story is far from over. Prime Minister Narendra Modi must seize the moment.

Various assessments of the post-pandemic world suggest that there is a real threat of gains in poverty reduction being reversed on account of Covid-19’s impact on the global economy. India would not remain untouched if this were to happen. We need to act now to mitigate the impact of the blow even if we cannot avoid it entirely.

India is an outlier in terms of the scale and extent of the lockdown. Over the next fortnight, we should aggressively try and map the spread of the virus using methods such as countrywide sample testing or pooled testing. It is encouraging that states like Maharashtra are currently considering such strategies. We need to come up with a blueprint for a staggered approach to get us out of the unsustainable country-level total lockdown.

India cannot be a country in suspended animation, waiting for a miracle to happen. For a miracle won’t happen, no matter how hard we pray for it. That is not how killer viruses run their course. That is definitely not how the Covid-19 pandemic is playing out globally. A pragmatic and scientific approach is the only way out of this seemingly impossible maze; that’s how you win a game of Chinese Checkers.

Three stark comparisons have emerged in the past two weeks. Statistically, despite its limited health infrastructure, India has done better than most others — especially advanced nations in Europe and America with fabled health services — in terms of infections, hospital admissions, ICU crowding, and fatalities.

Second, India has witnessed strong co-operation between the union government and state governments (health is a State List subject, a fact often forgotten or unknown to commentators) and there has been bipartisan support for the measures initiated by the prime minister. In other democracies, bitter partisan politics over Covid-19 have been on display.

Third, India is the only large economy where a lockdown has been accompanied by the near shutting down of the national economy, resulting in an unprecedented disruption in jobs, productivity, and revenue.

If prevention is the primary tool India has adopted, then a blanket lockdown cannot be the only instrument we use. Tech and data-driven mapping of senior citizens and those people suffering from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) has to be extensively conducted. Everything from Aadhar and municipal data to digitised hospital records need to be scanned to figure out exactly who must stay home — and will need to be assisted in this regard — and who can be permitted to return to a less restrictive, soft-lockdown work environment. Community health workers must be deployed for aggressive mapping of villages and urban settlements for the invisible elderly and chronically ill. Finding those who do not exist in any current electronic health record is key. Of course, this has to be a “privacy sensitive” exercise.

We have seen a skilful deployment of the lockdown by all, but this policy hammer has not been accompanied by a sharp economic respite. Experts from India and abroad seem to converge on the idea that spending is necessary and that money deployed must reach its intended goal within a specified timeframe. These goals must include lifeline protections, support for supply chains and demand stimulation, and wealth protection. While the central government must focus on the macro instruments and agencies, its energy must now also be directed towards protecting capital. The state governments must partner with specialised institutions to respond to local challenges that are contextual and individual and, in such instances, community programmes must be implemented.

It could be argued, and correctly so, that human lives matter more than the economy, which can be rebuilt. While this sentiment may sustain popular support for strong measures to control and roll back the pandemic, it will not obviate the need to address serious concerns linked to the economy, which sustains livelihoods and, hence, life itself.

This is why a staggered exit from the lockdown, accompanied by stepped-up testing to cover every district, is necessary. A containment policy has been drafted and is already being implemented by several states after identifying “hot spots”. There is across- the-board agreement on what must not be done — namely, resumption of inter-state travel by plane, train, or bus.

What we need now is an agreement on what can be done. This list must include the immediate resumption of agricultural activity (harvesting cannot wait for too long); the restarting of certain micro, medium, and small enterprises so that the impact on jobs and income disruption is minimal; and the resumption of basic economic activities like reviving stalled supply lines and retail services to ensure the looming crisis of essential goods is avoided while “social distancing” remains in place. In the next stage, the resumption of other activities like construction and the reopening of some commercial and trading entities can be considered. Industries must then begin to operate under a special safety protocol, which will ensure protection.

If the challenge of shutting down India was huge, the challenge of reopening India will be bigger. But India cannot, and must not, remain shut down for longer than what it takes to get its act together. Lives matter; so does the economy. Let’s not force ourselves into a corner where we have to make a false choice. — Professor Samir Saran

Source: www.orfonline.org/

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It is close to four months since the first case of Covid-19 was reported in China, and today the world is facing one of the worst health, humanitarian and economic crises in modern history. The pandemic not only threatens to take hundreds of thousands of human lives, but also to drive the global economy into recession and render millions of people unemployed.

The crisis triggered by Covid-19 is voracious to the extent that highly industrialised countries which constitute the centre of the global economy, such as the United States of America (US), the United Kingdom (UK), France and Germany, are some of the worst affected, with health systems that are failing to cope.

A number of analysts have argued that Covid-19 represents the failure of the global capitalist system, which survives on greed and the plundering of resources and the ecosystem (see Shivji 2020; Editorial 2020). In essence, this may mean the collapse of the system. The Covid-19 outbreak is a long-anticipated signal that has called for a rethink of a broader economic trajectory and policy frameworks to liberate people in peripheries from a hierarchical globalised capitalist system that has plunged the people of the South into deteriorating living conditions.

For example, the African continent has borne the brunt of the globalised capitalist system, as shown by the below-substandard, life-threatening healthcare system. To date, there are countries in the South that have been able to contain and deal with the pandemic, and this article draws lessons, inspiration and courage from Cuba and Venezuela. In what follows, the paper discusses policy frameworks, the importance of solidarity and other crucial interventions that African countries can immediately implement in the short to medium term to contain Covid-19 and eliminate poverty.

Covid-19 and neoliberal capitalism

There is no doubt that the spread of Covid-19 is directly linked to neoliberal capitalism, a global economic system that has been dominant over the past four decades. The effect of neoliberal capitalism on the health system has been a retreat of the state in providing basic healthcare services in many African countries, and this has seen the privatisation of the healthcare sector.

Globally, this phenomenon has resulted in a catastrophe, particularly during Covid-19, where access to healthcare has been the preserve of the rich.

Many African countries have, since their transition from colonialism, been unable to fully develop their public health systems due to fiscal constraints imposed by World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) prescriptions centred on limiting government expenditure in the public health sector.

The privatisation of the health sector now manifests itself in the inability to absorb the growing number of Covid-19 victims not only in the metropolis, but in peripheral countries as well. The failure to provide free or affordable tests, and the shortages of personal protective equipment (PPE) for health workers who are leading the fight against this pandemic are all indicators of a capitalist system that has failed to deliver in this neoliberal era.

Amidst crisis there is hope. Despite attempts by neoliberal apologists and the mainstream international media to project capitalism as the only solution to the crisis we are facing, Cuba has made advances in fighting this pandemic and there are specific features inherent in this country and others that we must closely analyse. These include development paths pursued by such countries that place emphasis on egalitarianism, complete repudiation of the capitalist path, strong investments in public healthcare systems, internationalism, solidarity and voluntarism.

It is important to state at this point that in spite of sanctions and other economic and political destabilisation tactics employed by the US and its key allies against Cuba for close on six decades, the number of Covid-19 fatalities it has recorded is among the lowest worldwide. Cuba’s Minister of Public Health, Dr Jose Angel Miranda, reported that by March 29 2020, a total of 139 cases and three deaths had been recorded. This is in contrast to the USA which, despite its wealth, had over 100 000 Covid-19 cases and more than 4 000 fatalities at the end of March with the fatality level surpassing 800 on some days.

This present Covid-19 lethality in the capitalist system calls for analysis as it defies the common narrative that a privatised healthcare system is efficient and accessible when services are required. Thus, the capitalist system’s touts — under the so-called banner of the invisible hand — that it can sort out any demand and supply challenges, defies logic. And so we discuss the health sector in Cuba.

Socialising the healthcare system

It is important at this stage to acknowledge the wisdom of Fidel Castro, the former leader of Cuba, who saw through the evils of privatisation and commodification of the public health sector. Unlike many countries in the North and the South that privatised their public health systems, Castro did the opposite by ensuring that support for this sector was increased and made available to all members of the society.

Although faced with an economic embargo, it must be emphatically stated that the country has been a shining star in the fight against Covid-19. Quite clearly, the successes are rooted in the universal healthcare system and tough measures put in place by former president Raul Castro. These measures include the declaration of a health emergency, home visits to all citizens suspected to be infected and offering free treatment. This is unlike many countries, where such services could only be accessed after payment of a certain fee.

Patnaik (2020a) notes that the current crisis has brought about: “The socialisation of healthcare and production of some essential services, which departs from the capitalist norm; and the more severe the crisis, the greater is the degree of socialisation.”

There is no doubt that the socialisation and nationalisation of healthcare services is something that was learnt from countries such as Cuba. This phenomenon has advanced with varying intensity in highly capitalist countries such as Spain, the UK and the USA. It is an approach which must be emulated by African countries in the fight against Covid-19.

When we talk of Africa, we must however, take into account its historical and present realities. Colonialism, neoliberalism and, in some cases, poor leadership have rendered African states almost incapable of resolving some of these emerging issues. The plausible way forward is to rethink development models best suited for the continent instead of adopting prescriptions from the Bretton Woods institutions that have stalled development on the continent. Key in this will be a reversal of privatisation and the adoption of universal healthcare.

The continent, alongside other developing regions, has experienced a brain drain in the health sector, and the time to put this to an end is now. The presence of healthcare workers is critical in minimising the damage in times of outbreaks such as Covid-19.

As Max Ajl (2020) notes: “Training excellent nurses and doctors can be done extremely cheaply, part of the reason Cuba has a world-class medical system. But if wrenched from a nation through the quiet inducement of market coercion or the louder process of social dislocation/primitive accumulation on a national scale, the commonwealth resource of medical training can become a resource to be pillaged.”

The loss of health personnel to the metropolis is not only a loss of human personnel but also of financial resources for peripheral states. This is so because underdeveloped countries pour resources into training health personnel for the benefit of developed countries; this is

an important indicator highlighting new forms of imperialism under global contemporary neoliberal capitalism. Although recognising that it is almost impossible to halt the brain drain given the unequal power relations on the world stage, it is equally important for developing countries to put in place mechanisms to slow this brain drain.

Another key lesson to be drawn from Cuba in the face of a massive skills haemorrhage, is the use of an important untapped resource in the form of medical students and volunteers who can be equipped to work under supervisors in times of outbreaks such as Covid-19. The story of Cuba’s containment of Covid-19 would be incomplete without mentioning the role of volunteers in spreading the message and door-to-door treatment of affected and infected people. This can only happen when there is a sense of patriotism which compels everyone to save people and the nation.

Venezuela has also shown that the issuing of food packs, which is a socialist approach, can, despite the battering of its economy, help during times of a disaster such as Covid-19. This is a recognition that during disaster-enforced lockdowns, most people are unable to work and fend for their families. A food distribution programme, if implemented alongside suspension of payment of rentals and protection of worker rights, can go a long way in protecting Africans during these difficult times. This is an important lesson to be drawn from Venezuela.

International solidarity

One of the major failures of neoliberal capitalism at this current juncture has been its resort to inward-looking strategies and the practice of “new nationalisms” (see Shivji 2020) and fascism (Patnaik 2020b; Yeros and Jha, 2020). By this we make reference to what we have seen of late in developed countries, with the exception of Portugal, where the state has turned against immigrants in offering health and other social services. This phenomenon has also been witnessed in some countries located in the South. Instead of sending medical supplies to rescue a continent that has been ravaged by imperialism for over a century, Western countries are sending aeroplanes to evacuate their nationals, as if Covid-19 originated from Africa. The metropolis has been found wanting when it comes to international solidarity.

Turning to Cuba, we learn a number of lessons. Despite having its own challenges whose origins are rooted in the international onslaught led by the US, Cuba is currently present in 13 countries, which include Andorra, Italy, Spain, China, Venezuela and Caribbean nations, to help fight Covid-19. Turning to Africa, there is clearly a need for close co-operation among African states at this stage and it is surprising that since the outbreak, there has been no notable collective action or statement coming from the leadership of the African Union on how it proposes to tackle the pandemic. The continent can build on the already existing sub-regional blocks to launch an offensive against the pandemic.

Conclusion

To end, emphasis must be placed on the need to abandon the neoliberal path in economic development and social service provision for the continent to be able to deal with Covid-19 and other health system challenges that are likely to emerge in future. Apart from denouncing the privatisation agenda of health and other social services, it is also important to socialise the health services and the production of essential services.

The need to utilise the untapped resource of medical students and volunteers while dealing with the brain drain in the health sector cannot be overemphasised. Lastly, as already highlighted, international solidarity is critical when dealing with global challenges such as Covid-19.

The African Union and sub-regional bodies must step up and be counted in critical times like these. Covid-19 is a real test for the African leadership and an opportune platform for charting a new pro-poor development path. — Freedom Mazwi

References related to the feature are available on request: contact [email protected]

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The travel and tourism industry has already suffered the most devastating setbacks since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, yet its full impact on this sector is still unknown.

The United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) estimates that international tourist arrivals could decline by 20% to 30% in 2020. This would translate into a loss of $300-billion to $400-billion in international tourism receipts in the worst-case scenario.

Similarly, analysis by the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) shows a sharp escalation in the economic loss to the world economy, up to $2.7-trillion of GDP. This will put almost 75 million jobs at risk in G20 countries alone.

It is not hard to predict that in our country, the sector’s contribution to the GDP for this year will be very low and that the sector will incur severe job losses. This is because the lockdown which we imposed to contain the spread of the virus curtailed both the supply and the demand side of the tourism market. In essence, the lockdown rendered the tourism sector totally inactive.

However, we must appreciate and applaud the fact that thus far, our efforts to contain Covid-19 have resulted in the slowing of the spread of the virus. At the same time, the need to avoid the loss of jobs and the destruction of livelihoods is a top priority. Thus, there is a need to keep a delicate balance between protecting people from the Covid-19 virus and avoiding economic devastation. Accordingly, our government has adopted the Risk Adjustment Approach, which consists of a sequenced, phased-in opening up of key sectors and priority areas while intensifying the fight against Covid-19 and rebuilding our economy.

Because the tourism sector thrives on social interaction, it will take longer for businesses in the sector to return to full operation. In the meantime, we need to create mechanisms to protect the most vulnerable segments of the sector such as SMMEs, those who are self-employed, women and the youth.

Saving the sector

The Tourism Relief Fund, which we introduced to assist small businesses in the sector, has thus far received more than 10 000 applications. This R200-million fund is a once-off assistance package capped at R50 000 per entity and it is aimed at assisting entities to cover fixed costs, operational costs, supplies and other pressure cost items.

Entities in the following categories of the tourism value chain are eligible to apply:

• Accommodation establishments: hotels, lodges, bed and breakfast establishments (B&Bs), guest houses and backpackers.

• Hospitality and related services: restaurants (not attached to hotels); conference venues (not attached to hotels), professional catering; and attractions.

• Travel and related services: tour operators; travel agents; tourist guiding; car rental companies; and coach operators.

We acknowledge that the fund is not enough. We therefore encourage businesses in the sector to apply to other relief schemes that have been made available by our government.

Government has introduced a R200-billion loan guarantee scheme in partnership with the major banks, national treasury and the South African Reserve Bank. The initial phase of this scheme is for companies with a turnover of less than R300-million a year. Since most of the tourism businesses fall within this category, we encourage them to utilise this opportunity. This will help them to reduce the burden of operational costs, such as salaries, rent and the payment of suppliers.

We have also been working in close collaboration with the department of labour and employment, labour formations and the Tourism Business Council of South Africa (TBCSA) to expedite Unemployment Insurance Fund applications for tourism businesses. So far, we have received more than 25 000 applications and we believe this will also assist in saving jobs in the sector.

Global co-ordination effort

While it is important to support the sector so that it can weather the storm, there is also a need to start planning for the recovery of the sector in the post-Covid-19 period. The global nature of the pandemic means that the measures to curb the spread of Covid-19, such as travel restrictions and border closures, have been imposed worldwide. This means that any recovery planning that is not in line with a globally co-ordinated effort will be a futile exercise. Regarding global co-ordination, we have participated in conferences and engagements with global institutions such as the African Union, the G20 ministerial meeting, the UNWTO and the WTTC to look at how we can develop a global approach to the recovery of the tourism sector. The AU convened the first meeting of the Bureau of the Subcommittee on Tourism for the Specialised Technical Committee on Transport, Transcontinental and Interregional Infrastructure, Energy and Tourism (STC-TTIIET) on April 21 2020. The purpose of the meeting was to exchange ideas on a response and recovery plan for tourism in relation to the Covid-19 pandemic.

On April 14, the UNWTO convened a virtual conference on Policies for Inclusive Recovery in Global Tourism, in collaboration with the Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growth. The conference provided a platform to discuss how governments, institutions and companies can protect vulnerable populations during the Covid-19 outbreak. The meeting also discussed measures that countries can put in place to accelerate their recovery.

The G20 Presidency (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) convened a Tourism Ministers’ Virtual Meeting on 24 April. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss the tourism sector’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic as well as to formulate a recovery plan supporting the long-term resilience of the sector. Specifically, the meeting was aimed at facilitating collaborative action to protect tourism businesses and jobs, and to support visitors throughout the outbreak. Given that the tourism sector will play a crucial role in economic recovery, the G20 Tourism Ministers Meeting provided a platform to reinforce global co-operation with other international organisations in order to mitigate the impact of the pandemic and lay the foundation to accelerate recovery.

For its part, the WTTC has proposed to G20 tourism ministers to “… fully jointly commit with the private sector to four key principles to achieve a faster recovery. This would involve including the private sector in the coordinated response, ensuring all measures put the traveller at the heart of their actions. This would include a seamless traveller journey with enhanced health security standards enabled through technology, developing joint public-private and G20-wide health protocols, as well as ongoing support packages for the tourism sector beyond lifting of lockdown and into the recovery”.

The consistent theme emerging from these global institutions is that countries should develop a globally co-ordinated approach for the recovery of the tourism sector. Additionally, countries are encouraged to commit to supporting the sector during the crisis to save businesses and jobs, developing a framework to advance sustainable tourism, investing in market intelligence systems and digital transformation, and developing a governance framework for tourism at all levels.

In the end, each country is expected to develop its own recovery plan that is informed by the prevailing conditions in that particular country. Based on the Covid-19 pandemic’s expected trajectory in South Africa, the best-case scenario is that the tourism sector’s recovery will only begin, in earnest, towards the end of this year. The first phase of the recovery will be driven by domestic tourism followed by regional tourism. International tourism will only start coming into operation next year.

The Risk Adjusted Approach gives us a framework within which we can carve out a path towards recovery for the tourism sector in South Africa. Working in collaboration with the private sector, we are developing a recovery plan that will form a launch-pad for the tourism recovery efforts in South Africa. We are confident that the sector will overcome the current challenges and emerge even stronger in the post-Covid-19 period. — Minister of Tourism Mmamoloko Kubayi-Ngubane

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Two ANC leaders have been gunned down in separate incidents in KwaZulu-Natal since the weekend, sparking fears that the drop in political killings in the province may have been temporary.

Police officials said two men fired more than 20 bullets at Mtubatuba councillor and ANC chief whip Phillip Mkhwanazi, who is also an induna at Khula village in St Lucia.

Mkhwanazi, who was also one of only five black tour operators in the iSimangaliso Wetland Park, was attacked at about 11am on Monday while he was waiting outside his home for his car to be repaired.

His killing followed that of Thengazakhe Maphanga, a former Inkatha Freedom Party councillor and community leader in the Dukuduku forest area next to Khula village. Maphanga was shot on May 2.

According to the police, the two men had approached Mkhwanazi and asked for proof of residence documents from him and then opened fire on him. They took his cellphone and fled the scene.

No arrests have been made in connection with his killing.

Also on Monday, an eThekwini ANC Youth League branch secretary, Thamsanqa Gcabashe, was shot dead at the home of another youth league member in the Hammarsdale area.

Gcabashe, who led the Ward 91 branch in the west of the city, died about 20 metres from his family home, according to a source in the area.

The youth league’s eThekwini regional secretary, Thinta Cibane, called on residents to assist the police in finding the killers of Gcabashe, who he described as a “community servant” in his ward.

“This is another reminder of the onslaught meted out against young revolutionaries in this part of the world. Another young man lies lifeless and we are left wondering what could have been the reason,” Cibane said.

He said the murder of Gcabashe appeared to have been an assassination. “We urge law enforcement agencies to investigate this senseless killing and to bring to justice those found to be implicated both in its planning and its execution.” 

Police comment on Gcabashe’s death was not available at the time of publication.

KwaZulu-Natal had been plagued by a wave of political killings, which began after the change in the ANC leadership in the province in 2015 and the build-up to the 2016 local government elections. 

These killings prompted the province to appoint the Moerane Commission of inquiry into the killings. The commission identified competition over council posts, tenders and resources to be a key driver of the violence, which appeared to have tapered off after a series of high profile arrests ahead of the 2019 provincial and national elections.